瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy：nasdaq correction：can we decouple-20170707-credit suisse？

《瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy：nasdaq correction：can we decouple-20170707-credit suisse？》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、7July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comNASDAQcorrection:Canwedecouple?KinNangChik85221017482Figure1:NASDAQCompositerolling20dayscorrelationcoefficientkinnang.chik@credit-suis

2、se.comwithMSCIAsiaex-Japan(MXASJ)1.00.80.60.40.20.00.17x-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8Sep-12Mar-13Sep-13Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17NasdaqCompositerolling20dayscorrelationcoefficientvsMSCIACAsiaex-JpSource:Bloomberg,Datastream,MSCI■Canwedecouple?WhilehistoricallyMSCIAsiaex-Japan(MXASJ

3、)hasalmostalwayscorrectedwhentheS&P500corrects,thekeyquestionforinvestorsnowiswhetherwecandecouplefromavaluationdrivencorrectionintheNASDAQ.Thegoodnewsissofarweappeartohavedecoupledwiththe20daysrollingcorrelationcoefficientbetweentheNASDAQCompositeandMXASJalow0.17x.Significantly,evenf

4、ortheTechheavymarketsofKoreaandTaiwanthe20-daycorrelationcoefficientsare-0.24xand-0.02x.■Couldcorrelationcoefficientsstaylow?Whileitisalwaystrickytosuggestcorrelationcoefficientscouldstaylow,webelievetheycould,atleastforOldEconomyTech.ComparedwiththeNASDAQ’sP/Bof3.97x,weestimateP/Bofj

5、ust2.13xforTop5andTop10OldEconomyTechwhichincludesSamsungElectronics,TSMC,HonHaiandLargan.Moreimportantly,thisP/BissupportedbytheriseinROEfromarecentlowof14.5%inDec-2016to17.6%currently.WebelieveSEC’sprofitguidancethismorningfurthersupportsthisROEuptrend.■ROEgapbetweenOldEconomyTechan

6、dInternethasnarrowedto3%.Asdiscussedinourreportof6JulyAfterTech’s10%outperformance,takeprofit?,theROEgapbetweenOldEconomyTechandInternethasnarrowedto3.2%forTop5,andto2.9%forTop10(seeFigures4-5).DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,L

7、EGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportas

8、onlya