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1、15August2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comTimetolookatlaggards?KinNangChik85221017482Figure1:MSCICountryIndicesYTD(sortedfromworsttobest)kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.comCoun
2、tryYTD%inUS$Australia9.7%Japan10.6%Thailand11.6%Malaysia12.2%Philippines12.5%Indonesia13.1%Taiwan19.5%Singapore21.8%APxJ22.0%HongKong23.5%India25.0%Asiaex-Japan25.4%Korea25.9%China33.8%Source:MSCI■Doanyofthelaggardslookinteresting?Figure1highlightsthatthesixworstperformersYTDinUSDa
3、reAustralia,Japan,Thailand,Malaysia,thePhilippinesandIndonesia.Whilethesesixmarketsareupbetween10%and13%YTDinabsoluteterms,theyarehugeunderperformersversusAsiaPacificex-Japan’s22%return.AsweareUnderweightfiveofthemandNeutralonlyonThailand(upgradedfromUnderweightonlyrecently),wearel
4、ookingatwhetheranyofthelaggardslookinterestingusingfivecriteria.Theyarevaluations(havetheyjoinedtheCheapest4club),hasROEstartedtorise,aretheyassociatedwithconsensusEPSupgrades,2017/18EEPSgrowthandwhethertheyareassociatedwithforeigninvestorcapitulation.■OnlyJapanhasjoinedtheCheapest
5、4.Ofthesixlaggards,Figure2highlightsthatonlyJapanhasjoinedtheCheapest4clubwiththreeofthem—namelyIndonesia,thePhilippinesandMalaysia—stillintheExpensive4club.ROEhasbottomedforJapan,IndonesiaandAustralia.Japanisassociatedwithupgradesto2017EconsensusEPS,whiletheTIPs(Thailand,Indonesia
6、,Philippines)areassociatedwithforeigninvestorcapitulation).■WearereviewingourUnderweightcallonJapan.Amongthesixlaggards,Japanlooksthemostinteresting,passing3-4ofthecriteriathatweset;Malaysialookstheleast,passingnoneofourcriteria.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORT
7、ANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisr
8、eport.Investorsshouldconsi
