瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy stillhiding in staples-20170725-creditsuisse

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1、25July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comStillhidinginStaples?KinNangChik85221017482Figure1:ConsumerStaplesPBVvs.ROErelativetoregionkinnang.chik@credit-suisse.com120%High112%100%80%76

2、.1%now60%average:60.5%40%20%0%-20%-40%Dec-00Dec-02Dec-04Dec-06Dec-08Dec-10Dec-12Dec-14Dec-16APxJConsumerStaples-PBvsROEreltoAPxJSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■Webelievethereisafurtherde-ratingtogo.WhileFinancialsandTechareourbiggestOverweights,StaplesandHealthcareareourbiggestUnderw

3、eights.TherationaleforourUnderweightistwo-fold.One,de-ratinghasfurthertogo.Two,continueddowngradesto2017EconsensusEPS.■SecondbiggestEPSdowngradesareinStaples.Figure1highlightsthatregionalStapleshavederatedfromaPBVvs.ROEpremiumof112%to76%currently.Butwebelievethereisafurtherde-ratingtoatleastt

4、hesector’slong-runhistoricalaverageof61%.Thekeycatalystforthisfurtherde-ratingiscontinueddowngradesto2017EconsensusEPS.Figure2highlightsafurtherdowngradeof1.1%inJuly,makingitthesecondworstsectorforEPSrevisionsthismonth.SeeFigures2–3.■ButMSCIChinaStaplesstartingtolookattractive.MSCIChinaStaple

5、s,PBVvs.ROEpremiumshavede-ratedfromhighsof263%to39%currently.Moreover,thesectorisassociatedwithupgradesto2017EconsensusEPS—of1%inJuly.SeeFigures4–5.TheleastattractiveareThaiStapleswithPBVvs.ROEpremiumsof87%whicharemorethandoublethesector’shistoricalaverage.Moreover,itcontinuestobeassociatedwi

6、th2017EconsensusEPSdowngrades—afurther1.8%inJuly.SeeFigures8and10.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepor

7、ts.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.25July2017StaplescontinuestobeFigure2:2017EC