瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy-20170712-creditsuisse1

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1、12July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comHaveyounoticedthatJapancontinuestoKinNangChikunderperformdespiterecentyenweakness?85221017482kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.comFigure1:

2、MSCIJapan/MSCIAsiaPacificex.Japanrelativepriceperformance(daily)106104102100989694-9.2%YTD201792908886Dec-15Feb-16Apr-16Jun-16Aug-16Oct-16Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17MSCIJapanvsMXAPJSource:MSCI■Theyenhasfallenfromarecenthighof108intradayon17Aprilto113.5currently.Whiletheyenhasfallenby5

3、%sinceitshighsinmidApril,Figure1highlightsthatMSCIJapanhascontinuedtounderperformMSCIAsiaPacificex.JapaninUSD.Indeed,Figure1highlightsthatyear-to-dateunderperformancehasnowreached9.2%.■Correlationcoefficientwithabsolute0.6x,withrelative0x.Figure2highlightsthattherolling52-weekcorre

4、lationcoefficientbetweenJPY/USDandtheNikkei225remainsafairlyhigh0.6x.ButFigure3highlightsthatthesamecorrelationcoefficientwithrelativepriceperformance(MSCIJapan/MSCIAsiaex.JapaninUSD)is0x.Inotherwords,yenweaknessisnolongeraguaranteethatMSCIJapanoutperformstheregioninUSD.■Overweight

5、Korea,UnderweightJapaninanAsiaPacificcontext.Webelievethatthereasonthecorrelationcoefficienthasdroppedto0xisbecauseJapan’sconsensusEPSrevisionscontinuetolagNJAandKorea.SeeFigures4-5.WithKorea’sP/Bof1.1xstilllowerthanJapan’s1.38xbutROEhigher(KoreaROEof9.9%versusJapan’s8.7%),wereiter

6、ateourOverweightcallonKoreaandUnderweightcallonJapan.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports

7、.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.12July2017Figure1highlightsthatFigure2:Nikkei225rolling52-weekcorrelationcoefficientwi

8、thJPY/USDdespitetheyen’s5%