瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy-20170712-creditsuisse

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1、12July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comAsiavs.World–6thconsecutiveEPSrevisionKinNangChikbeat85221017482kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.comFigure1:NJAvs.WorldConsensusEPS—4episodeswithBe

2、ats160EPSrevision(FY1):NJAvsWorld150+47%140+26%130120110+7.7%100+4.4%90-6m-4m-2m0m+2m+4m+6m+8m+10m+12m+14m+16m+18mJan-02Jan-04Nov-08Jan-17Source:IBES,MSCI■SixthconsecutiveEPSrevisionbeat.Inourrecentreports,wehavebeenhighlightingthetwelfthconsecutivemonthofupgradesto2017EconsensusEPSforMSCIAs

3、iaex-Japan(MXASJ)andalsothatthiswasonlythethirdepisodesince2001tohavesuchalongperiodofupgrades(Figures4–5).Inthisnote,Figure1highlightsthatNJAconsensusEPSrevisionshavenowbeatenWorldconsensusEPSrevisionsforsixconsecutivemonths.Thecumulativebeatis4.4%.Since2001,therehaveonlybeenfourepisodeswhe

4、reNJAhasbeatenWorldconsensusEPSbysixmonthsormore.■Exceptfor2004,theseepisodeswereassociatedwithout-performance.Figure2highlightsthatexceptfor2004,whichwasassociatedwithaggressiveFedtightening,theotherthreeepisodes(includingthecurrent)wereassociatedwithMXASJoutperformingMSCIWorld(MXWD).Wealso

5、highlightthat2017EconsensusEPSgrowthis19.9%forMXASJversus13%forMXWD.For2018E,botharesimilarat10.5%.■Continuetosuggestbuyingthedips.WithMXASJrallyingto628andjust2%shyofourYEtargetof640,wecontinuetosuggestbuyingthedipsparticularlyaswearetradingatafairlysubstantial27%discountversustheWorldonour

6、P/BversusROEvaluationmodel.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawaretha

7、ttheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.12July2017NJAConsensusEPSFigure2:MXASJ/MSCIWorldrelativepriceperformanceduringEPSrevisio