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1、27June2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comModestnetforeignbuyingsofarinJuneKinNangChik85221017482Figure1:NetforeignbuyinginEmergingAsiaex-China(US$mn)kinnang.ch
2、ik@credit-suisse.comMonthlyDataIndiaIndonesiaKoreaPhilippinesTaiwanThailandMalaysiaEMAsiaex-ChinaJan-17-173-721,26651,447181942,749Feb-171,475-60392-1031,581-1072153,392Mar-174,7537583,162-2512,48110398411,991Apr-173671,0509521991,148525944,362May-171,194-471,6451731,5
3、641603415,030Jun-17509-3241,746343574-1651492,831AnnualData2017(YTD)8,1251,3059,1643668,7952252,37630,35520162,8691,25110,3908910,9772,244-60427,2172015-5-2,704-3,597-1,1853,211-4,473-4,990-13,743Source:StockexchangesofIndia,Indonesia,Korea,Philippines,Taiwan,Thailand,
4、Malaysia■ModestnetforeignbuyingsofarinJune.Figure1highlightsthatnetforeignbuyinginEmergingAsiaex-ChinaisUS$2.83bnsofarinJune–theweakestmonthsinceJanuary.ThebiggestrecipientsofnetforeignbuyinginJunewereKorea(US$1.75bn)followedbyTaiwan(US$574mn)andIndia(US$509mn).Wealsoh
5、ighlightthemixedtrendsintheTIPswiththePhilippinesseeinglargenetforeignbuyingofUS$343mnwhileIndonesiaandThailandareassociatedwithnetforeignsellingofUS$324mnandUS$165mn,respectively.■SoweareNOTyetcrowded.Onarolling12-monthbasis,netforeignbuyinginEmergingAsiaex-Chinaex-Ma
6、laysiais0.7%ofmarketcap.Thisisshyofour1%ofmarketcapthresholdthatweconsidercrowded.Thetwomarketspreviouslyassociatedwithforeigninvestorcapitulation–MalaysiaandJapan–haverecentlyseenforeigninvestorbuyingsuchthatonarolling12-monthbasistheyarenowseeingnetforeignbuyingof0.4
7、%and0.2%,ofmarketcap,respectively.SeeFigures4-5.■Potential2%furtherupsidetoourMXASJYEtargetof640.WithMSCIAsiaex-Japan(MXASJ)rallyingto631,wehighlightafurther2%upsidetoourYEtargetof640.OurbiggestOverweightsremainKoreaandTaiwan,withsmallerOverweightsinMSCIChina,MSCIHongK
8、ongandSingapore.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITY
