瑞士信贷-亚太股票策略-asia pacific equity strategy with markets nearing record highs,time to look at laggards-20170720-credit suisse

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1、20July2017AsiaPacificEquityResearchInvestmentStrategyAsiaPacificEquityStrategyResearchAnalystsSTRATEGYSakthiSiva6562123027sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.comWithmarketsnearingrecordhighs,timetoKinNangChiklookatlaggards?85221017482kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.comFigure1:MSCIAsiaex-Jap

2、an(MXASJ)–monthlyfrom31Dec1990800Recordhigh683700646600500400300200100Dec-90Dec-93Dec-96Dec-99Dec-02Dec-05Dec-08Dec-11Dec-14MSCIACAsiaex-JPSource:MSCI■Withmarketsnearingrecordhighs…Figure1highlightsMSCIAsiaex-Japan(MXASJ)risingto646andfastapproachingtherecordhighof683inOctobe

3、r2007.Figure2highlightsMSCIAsia-Pacificex-Japan(MXAP)risingto505—alsoclosinginonitsrecordhighof586in2007.■MXASJP/Bof1.7xversus2.94xthen.Figure3highlightsthatMXASJ’scurrentP/Bof1.7xissignificantlylowerthanthe2007highof2.94x.12-monthforwardP/Eof16.6xisalsohigherthanthecurrent13

4、.4x.TheDYwas3.3%lowerthanthebondyieldthenversus1.5%currently.■Timetolookatlaggards?Withthevaluationenvironmentdifferentfrom2007,weareunsureifpricemomentumwouldbeassuccessfulin2017asitwasin2007.Weinsteadsuggestlookingatlaggards.OurquantscreencombiningYTDlaggardswithanOutperfor

5、mratingfromCSanalysts,tradingatadiscountonourPBVvsROEvaluationmodelandpositiveone-monthconsensusEPSrevisionhighlightsDaelimIndustrial,PICCGroup,HyundaiDepartmentStores,ShinhanFinancial,FubonFinancialandPTTGCasattractive.WedoemphasisethoughthatthisisjustaQuantscreenanddoesnott

6、akeintoaccountbottom-upfactors.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,inves

7、torsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.20July2017MXASJandMXAPJareFigure2:MSCIAsiaPacificex-Japan(MXAP)monthlysinceDec1990fastapproachin

8、gtheir2007highs700Recordhigh5866005055004003002001000Dec-90Dec-93Dec