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1、AsiaCommoditiesDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateAustralasia8December2017AsiaCommoditiesResourcesIndustryUpdateMetals&MiningAsiacommodities2018outlook–mildinflationary,slowcapex,strongFCFJamesKanWecontinuetobeconstructiveoncommodityspacein2018ResearchAnalystWithworldeco
2、nomicgrowthlikelytokeeptoaresilientpaceinto2018andcommoditysuppliersremainingconservativetowardscapex,webelievegeneral+852-22036146demand/supplyforthecommodityspacewillhaveanotherfavorableyear.SharonDingMeanwhile,commodityprices'upwardsurgeshouldbemitigatedbycentralResearchAnal
3、ystbankstaperingandthuscreateamildinflationaryscenarioin2018.OurROA/EV+852-2203-5716valuationanalysisleadsustobelievethatcoal,non-ferrous,steel,andrefining/chemicalsshouldstillhaveplentyofroomforvaluationstorecover.OnthePaulYoungotherhand,webelieveamildinflationaryandlowsupplierca
4、pexshouldpromptResearchAnalystinvestorstoputanemphasisonFCFyieldandbalance-sheetquality.Sinopec,+61-2-8258-2587RioTinto,Shenhua,POSCO,Conch,ChinaMolybdenum,andSPC-HareourtoppicksbasedontheFCF/net-gearingmatrix.JohnsonWanResearchAnalystCapexrecoversslowlybutdemandshouldstillbere
5、silient+852-22036163Ouranalysisshowsthatacrossmostmajorcommoditysubsectors,aslowcapexrecoverywithonly40-60%ofpeaklevelcapexisacommontheme.WebelieveVitusLeungthatcommoditysuppliersarereluctanttore-investaftergettingburnedbadlyResearchAnalystbythecommoditydown-cyclesince2010/2011
6、.Aslowcapexrecoveryamong+852-22036158globalproducers,togetherwiththeChinesegovernment’s“SupplySideReform”SanghiHan,CFAinitiativetorationalizecapacities,shouldresultinlimitedincrementalsupplyinto2018.Meanwhile,theIMFforecastsworldGDPgrowthwillacceleratetoc.ResearchAnalyst3.7%in2
7、018from3.6%in2017.Fortheworld'sbiggestcommodityconsumer,+82-2-3168900China,wealsoobservereasonablylowhouseinventory,industrialinventory,andToppicksresilientdemand.Inshort,webelieve2018generalcommoditiesD/SshouldSinopec(0386.HK),HKD5.47Buyremainfavorable.RioTinto(RIO.AX),AUD68.8
8、3BuyChinaShenhuaEnergyBuyCentralbanktaperingleadsinflat
