德银-亚洲-信贷市场-亚洲信贷月报：年底的杠铃策略

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDate25October2017HarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditMonthly(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comBarbellintotheyear-endViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalyst(+65)64235726Theplothasn’treallychanged–wehadtitledouropeningthemeasviaches

2、lav.shilin@db.com“Economicsvs.Politics”inthe2HOutlookonJune1–thebattlecontinuesandEconomicsisstillthewinner.Ononehand,macroenvironmentstaysVikashAgarwalla,CFAconducivewithdecentgrowthandlowinflation,supportingfundflowsandResearchAnalystriskassets.Ontheotherhand,polit

3、icalnoiseabounds,withalmostevery(+65)64235718majorcountryfacingsomeortheotherissue.EMhasbeenresilientdespitevikash.agarwalla@db.comhawkishFedspeakandmorehikesbeingpricedin,thankspartlytoweakerdollarandhighercommodities,andDB’shouseviewisthatnoneofthesetwoKarenKwan,MB

4、Atrendsshouldreverse.Asforrates,ECB&US3QGDPthisweek,andthelikelyappointmentofnextFedChairincomingdayswillbekey.GraduallyrisingResearchAnalyst(+65)64235387ratesleadtotighterspreadsasweknow.Netnet,wedon’tseethebiggerkaren.kwan@db.compicturechangingfortherestoftheyearan

5、dhaddetailedinthelastMonthly(onSep12)ourrationaleforanymajorselloffbeingunlikely.WehadalsohighlightedthatspreadtighteningcouldresumeinOctober.OverallAsiacreditFrancoLamspreadsareindeed10bptighterMTD.ThishaspartlybeendrivenbytheResearchAnalystexpectedChinasovereigndea

6、l.Westillseepocketsofvalueamongstsingle-(+852)22036226AsandwidertradingBBBs,bothinthecorporates&financialsspace,andfranco.lam@db.comselectsingleBs–recommendingabarbellstrategyintotheyear-end.ThemescoveredWidertradingBBBsofferbettervaluethantighterBBsSomejuiceleftin

7、BankT2sChinaproperty–willspreadsbemoreresilientinthisdowncycle?HighestconvictiontradeideasSovereigns:BuyMongolia2024s,Malaysia2046,Indonesia2037;SellSriLanka2025s,Indonesia2047s;BuyChina5YCDS.Financials:Buy:Woori2024sT2,BEA2026sT2,Mizuho2025sT2,NipponLife4%c27,BoC

8、Avi2026s,CDBLeasing2024s,Huarong2.875%SnrPerp,OCBC4.25%2024sT2.Sell:SBIAT1,Canara2022s,BoChina2025s,2024s,BoComFL2022s,CITICLtd2026