亚太地区-信贷市场-亚洲信贷简报：再融资周期管理

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1、ABGlobalResearch19June2018FixedIncomeAsiaCreditCompendiumAsiaPacificManagingthroughrefinancingcycleManagingrefinancinghurdleinto2H18andbeyondWestartedtheyearwithtightbondvaluationsandthatmarketcomplacencyhasbeenchallengedbyrisingUSratevolatilityandtheexpectationofheavyoffshore

2、AsianHYissuanceonmoreconstrainedonshorefundingaccess.SlowerChinagrowthin2H18/2019(6.6%in2018and6.4%in2019)amidstatighteningbiasandweakChinabidmaystillcarrycreditspreadswiderfromhere.EasinggrowthbutbenigncurrencyoutlookandeffectivedeleveragingshouldhoweveranchorChina'screditspr

3、eads.Wewilllikelycontinuetojigglewithsimilarvariablesin2H18butdecompressionhasalreadyhappenedinAsianHYwithacreditspreadmultipleof4.5xfrom3.7xin2017.TheconcernonsupplyshouldphaseoutwhenChinamanagesthroughtherefinancingcycle,whichisaidedbythegovernment'saccommodativepolicymeasur

4、esinbalancingrisingonshoredefaults,morecreditdifferentiationandonshore/offshorefundingchannels.AtugofwarbetweenoffshoreandonshoreRefinancingneedsforAsianissuerscouldrisetoUSD318bninFY18-20E(Chinaaloneaccountedfor60%),whencomparedtoUSD201bninFY15-17.Intheextremecasewhereonshore

5、marketremainsshutevenforrefinancingandallChineseHYdevelopers'onshorebondstoberefinancedoffshore,theamountcouldincreasetoUSD405bninFY18-20E.Wethinkafairerestimatewillbesomewhereinbetweenasdevelopersinouruniversehavemorediversifiedfundingchannels.AsmarketisbracingformoreHYissuan

6、cegivenunusedbondquota,webelievetechnicaloverhangwillremainatleastin3Q.Overall,wearenottooconcernedonrefinancingrisksforlargerdevelopersinouruniverse.Acoolerpropertymarketwillbemadeupbydevelopers'bettercash-flowmanagement,bufferincash/short-termdebtratioandhighermarketsharethr

7、oughconsolidation.MostandleastpreferredsegmentsWeexpectAsianIGspreadstowiden10bpsfromhere.ChineseBBBsunderperformedAA/As,weprefer5-7yrChinaBBBsforbettercushiontoneutralisemodestwidening.WehaveaslightbiasonAsianHYoverIGoncheapenedbondvaluationsandlessdurationexposure,thoughflig

8、httoqualityshouldreducerisktaking.WeseeAsianHYspreadstowiden4