德银-亚洲-信贷市场-亚洲信贷月报：如果利率持续上升会怎样？

《德银-亚洲-信贷市场-亚洲信贷月报：如果利率持续上升会怎样？》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDate1March2018HarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditMonthly(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comWhatifrateskeeprising?ViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalyst(+65)64235726viacheslav.shilin@db.comTheworstmightbebehindusfornow,but…KarenKwan,MBA3%wast

2、helineinthesandfor10yrUSTatthestartoftheyear.ItwasalmostResearchAnalystaconsensusforecastforyearend.Itwasalsothelevelwherethecorrelation(+65)64235387betweenhigherequitiesandhigherrateswasmeanttobreak.But,thepaceofkaren.kwan@db.comincreasewassoquickthatevenbeforewegotto3%,manysta

3、rtedshiftingthegoalpostto3.25-3.5%.Nevertheless,3%perhapsremainsanimportantVikashAgarwalla,CFApsychologicallevel.Goingforward,thisfastpacemightnotcontinueintheResearchAnalystverynearterm.10yrUSTisalready50bphigherinthefirsttwomonths.Even(+65)64235718usingthemostbearishforecastof

4、3.5%foryearend,thenext50bpmovevikash.agarwalla@db.comshouldtake10months.However,inthisMonthly,weanalyzetheimplicationsforAsiacreditofusbeingwrongand10yrreaching3.5%fasterthanexpected.FrancoLamResearchAnalystThemescovered(+852)22036226franco.lam@db.comImpactoncorporatesifcapital

5、marketsshutdownWhichbankingsystemwillbenefitthemostfromrisingrates?LowdollarpricequalitybondsHighestconvictiontradeideasSovereigns:BuyMongolia2023s,Indonesia2028sSukuks&2037s;SellPhilippines2042s&BuyMalaysia2046s.Financials:BuyWoori2024s(T2)&5.25%AT1,Mizuho2.953%2022s&2025sT

6、2,Huarong3.75%2022s&4.95%2047s,Cinda2028s&AT1,ChinaOrient2027s,PSBCAT1,AsahiLifePerp,Sirius2026s,BoChina2024T2,ICBC2.875%2022s,Taikang2022s.SellCITICLtd2027s,BoC2025s,CCBLeasing2.75%2021sandBOCOMLeasing3.5%2022s.IGCorps:BuyAdaniPorts2022s,Bharti2025s,NewWorldChina2027s;SellLeno

7、vo2022s.HYCorps:BuyEvergrande2023s,Ruyi2019s&2022s,Sunac2022s,SellMIE2019sKeyrecommendationchangesSovereigns:UpgradeSriLanka2026s&2027stoHoldfromSell;Financials:InitiateonMUFG2028swithaBuy;DowngradeWoori2020s,NipponLife5%c2022&ICBCAsiaAT1fromBuytoHold;IGCorps:DowngradeChinal

8、co2021sand2022stoHold;HYCorps:UpgradeGreenland