德银-新兴市场-利率与信贷-阿根廷:上升趋势

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时间:2018-03-10

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateForeignExchange16October2017RatesCreditDrausioGiacomelliStrategistArgentina-Positionfortheupturn(+1)212250-7355drausio.giacomelli@db.comHongtaoJiangArgentina’sFXandfixedincomemarketshavehadarelativelymutedStrategistrespons

2、etotherecentupsidesurprisesinbothdomesticactivityand(+1)212250-2524better-than-expectedprimaryresults/electoralpollssincethePASO.Inhongtao.jiang@db.comthisreportwereviewrecentmacrodevelopmentsandoutlookinArgentina,anddiscusshowtopositionforthisstageinthecycle.GuilhermeMaroneStrategistInour

3、view,thismutedresponseisnaturalatthisstageofthecycleand(+1)212250-8640thepolicyprioritiesofthisadministration.Theneedtofundwideningguilherme.marone@db.comcurrentaccountdeficitsandanchordisinflationrequirestightermonetarypolicyforlonger,whichweighsonfixedincome.JedEvansAlthoughthismixstills

4、upportscarry,anovervaluedcurrencyrequiresStrategistmoreactivemanagementofUSDshorts.(+1)212250-8605jerrold.evans@db.comThechoiceofinstrumentintheshort-endoflocalmarketsisimportantgivenwidedispersioninvaluations.Themacrodynamicsfavorsfloatingratesoverfixedrateinstrumentsgivenbothsupplyandmon

5、etarypolicyrisksAtthemid-sectionofthecurve(upto22s),theflatforwardcurveimpliedbytheBOTEsandtheadversecarry/rollandskewunderscoreourpreferenceforfloaters.BOPOM20soffersuperiorliquidityandremainapopularchoiceinpositioningforcarry,butvaluationlooksveryrichaccordingtoouranalysis.Aback-loadedf

6、iscaladjustment,whichwouldpickupafterpresidentialelectionsin2019(assumingtheincumbentisre-elected)isconsistentwithaback-loadedrealdepreciation–notappreciation–inlongertenors.Thisarguesforapreferenceofexternalbondsfordurationexposure.Whilevaluationincreditlookstightvs.itscurrentcreditstandi

7、ng,thereisstillscopeforfurthertighteningduetoa).Potentialmultiple-notchcreditascensionifpoliticsstayontrack;b).Theflatteningofspread/qualitycurveinEMcreditmarketsunderthelong-termconstructiveexternalbackdropofcontinuedinflows;andc).Alternativeopportuniti

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《德银-新兴市场-利率与信贷-阿根廷:上升趋势》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsEconomicsSpecialReportDateForeignExchange16October2017RatesCreditDrausioGiacomelliStrategistArgentina-Positionfortheupturn(+1)212250-7355drausio.giacomelli@db.comHongtaoJiangArgentina’sFXandfixedincomemarketshavehadarelativelymutedStrategistrespons

2、etotherecentupsidesurprisesinbothdomesticactivityand(+1)212250-2524better-than-expectedprimaryresults/electoralpollssincethePASO.Inhongtao.jiang@db.comthisreportwereviewrecentmacrodevelopmentsandoutlookinArgentina,anddiscusshowtopositionforthisstageinthecycle.GuilhermeMaroneStrategistInour

3、view,thismutedresponseisnaturalatthisstageofthecycleand(+1)212250-8640thepolicyprioritiesofthisadministration.Theneedtofundwideningguilherme.marone@db.comcurrentaccountdeficitsandanchordisinflationrequirestightermonetarypolicyforlonger,whichweighsonfixedincome.JedEvansAlthoughthismixstills

4、upportscarry,anovervaluedcurrencyrequiresStrategistmoreactivemanagementofUSDshorts.(+1)212250-8605jerrold.evans@db.comThechoiceofinstrumentintheshort-endoflocalmarketsisimportantgivenwidedispersioninvaluations.Themacrodynamicsfavorsfloatingratesoverfixedrateinstrumentsgivenbothsupplyandmon

5、etarypolicyrisksAtthemid-sectionofthecurve(upto22s),theflatforwardcurveimpliedbytheBOTEsandtheadversecarry/rollandskewunderscoreourpreferenceforfloaters.BOPOM20soffersuperiorliquidityandremainapopularchoiceinpositioningforcarry,butvaluationlooksveryrichaccordingtoouranalysis.Aback-loadedf

6、iscaladjustment,whichwouldpickupafterpresidentialelectionsin2019(assumingtheincumbentisre-elected)isconsistentwithaback-loadedrealdepreciation–notappreciation–inlongertenors.Thisarguesforapreferenceofexternalbondsfordurationexposure.Whilevaluationincreditlookstightvs.itscurrentcreditstandi

7、ng,thereisstillscopeforfurthertighteningduetoa).Potentialmultiple-notchcreditascensionifpoliticsstayontrack;b).Theflatteningofspread/qualitycurveinEMcreditmarketsunderthelong-termconstructiveexternalbackdropofcontinuedinflows;andc).Alternativeopportuniti

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