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1、EuropeanMining2018OutlookDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateNorthAmerica1December2017EuropeanMiningMetals&Mining2018OutlookIndustryUpdateMetals&MiningUpsideremains:aguideto2018-GLEN,RIOandFMtoppicksLiamFitzpatrickFurtherre-ratingpotentialdespiteslowingdemandResearchAnalystAftertwoyear
2、sofoutperformancewestillseefurtherupside(>25%)forselectivenames.Wecoverfourkeythemesthatwethinkwillbecriticalin2018:the+44-207-541-3233cycle,copper,costsandcapital.Toppicks:RIO(leadingcashreturns),GLENPatrickJones(undervaluedgrowth,basemetalexposure)andFM(de-riskingofprojectpipelineResearchAnal
3、ystin2018).Sells:NHY,ANTO,S32.WealsoupgradeAnglofromSELLtoHOLD.+44-20-754-53400Cycleoutlook:seasonalitystronglyinfavourBastianSynagowitzChinesedemandisslowing,butthisnowappearstheconsensusviewandpricedResearchAnalystin.Weexpectslowerdemandin2018butnocollapse,thesupplysideremains+41-44-227-3377s
4、upportiveandconsensusestimatesneedtoincrease(DBEBITDA~10%ahead).Onaseasonalbasis,Nov-ApristhestrongestperiodfromacommoditypricingPatrickMann,CFAandsectorperformanceperspective;overthepast20years,theaverageabsoluteResearchAnalystreturnforminingequitiesNov-Apris11%.SteelproductiontroughsinQ4and+2
5、7-11-775-7282reboundsthroughH1;Chinesepolicymeasurestocontrolpollutionthroughthewintercouldamplifythistrendin2018.RobinDraegerResearchAssociateCopper:supplychallenges2018-20+44-20-754-13352Copperisourpreferredmetalexposureandwehavelaidoutthesupplychallengesfacingtheindustry2018-20,includinglabo
6、ur,countryandprojectrisks.WeKeyChangesforecast297c/315cin2018/19,~10%aboveconsensus.CompanyTargetPriceRatingAAL.L1,300.00toSelltoHold1,400.00Costinflationreturningin2018FM.TO19.00to20.00-Wehaveundertakenadetailedanalysisoncurrentandhistoricalcosttrends.Source:DeutscheBankWhilecostpressuresarefar
7、lessseverethanthe2004-2012period,weexpectindustrycoststobeup>5%in2018throughacombinationofFX,oilandotherToppicksAngloAmerican(AAL.L),GBP1,376.00Holdinputcostandlabourinflation.Whileinflatingcostcurvesarepositiveforprices,RioTinto(RI
