德银-印尼-金属与采矿业-印尼获得镍矿石出口配额

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1、IndoNickelDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina7November2017IndonesiaIndoNickelResourcesMarketUpdateMetals&MiningPhilmovesover:Indotakesthenickelcrownwith20mntofexportorequotaJanemanLatulRealizationlikelytodisappointasdemandshiftsPTDeutscheVerdhanaSekuritasIndonesia

2、IndonesiagovernmentannouncedonMondaythatithasgivenout20.3mntofnickeloreexportquota(equalto213ktNi,assumingaveragenickelgradeatResearchAnalyst1.5%,moist30%)toseveralIndonesiannickelminers.Thisishigherthanour+62-21-29644569expectationofonly15-16mntofnickelorequotafor12-months.Th

3、eheadlinequotamaysoundnegativebutinrealitytheexportquotavolumehasbeenToppicksAntam(ANTM.JK),IDR670.00Buytamewithonly2.7mntasofNovemberthe3rd.Withtherainingseasonarrived,ValeIndonesia(INCO.JK),IDR3,170.00BuyIndonesiamaypotentiallymissedtheexpectationofexportingofupto6mntofSourc

4、e:DeutscheBanknickelorethisyear.CompaniesfeaturedAntam(ANTM.JK),IDR670.00BuyThebigquestionfornextyeariswhetherIndonesiawillexportallthe20mnt2016A2017E2018Eofnickelorequotaandwillfloodtheglobalmarketagain?AlthoughthereisaP/E(x)250.0–705.4possibilitytoexportthefullquota,webelieve

5、Indonesiaatbestcanexport15mntEV/EBITDA(x)23.38.47.3ofnickelorenextyear.ThisisbecauseweexpectthegovernmenttoimposestrictPrice/book(x)1.170.971.04rulesoverexportquotawhereminersmustfollowtheircommitmentonsmelterValeIndonesia(INCO.JK),IDR3,170.00Buydevelopmentthrough6monthsregula

6、rchecks.Thiswillcausesomeofthequota2016A2017E2018Etoberevokedaswedon'tthinkmostofminersareabletobuildsmeltersduetoP/E(x)875.9127.143.8financialissues.Hence,wearenottooconcernedabouttheheadlinenumbers.EV/EBITDA(x)11.015.812.0Price/book(x)1.11.31.2Figure1:Indonesia'sexportquotali

7、stofcompanies,volumeSource:DeutscheBankCompanyOreQuota(mnt)CeriaNugraha/Sinosteel2.30AnekaTambang3.97FajarLintas/Zhensi5.00Harita/Xinxin2.08CentralOmega/Macrolink0.82Jinchuan2.20Ifishdeco0.99Sambas2.97Total20.33Source:MinistryofEnergyandMineralResources,DeutscheBankDeutscheBan

8、kAG/HongKongThisresearchhasbeenpreparedinassociationwithPTDeu