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1、31October2018THISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)abcGlobalEQUITIESMETALS&MININGBulksoverBasefornowBase&Bulkminers4AsthemarketawaitstheimpactofChina’sresponsetoglobalgrowthconc
2、erns,weseevalueemerginginthesector4Relativegearingandexposureintobulkoverbasedrivesearningsandvaluationchanges.PreferAAL,RIO,S32,GLEN4ChangeTPs-2%to+24%updatingforrevisedpricedeckandFXforecasts.UpgradeS32,ASR,EXXtoBuyfromHoldMacrothesisintact:Wereiterateourviewthat
3、stressesfromglobaldivergenceandongoingtradewarsmakeforanuncomfortablenear-termpicture,wherecommoditiesimpactedbyrelativelyhighspeculativeactivityremainvolatile.Whileweseerealdemanddestructionfromcurrenttradetariffslimitedto1-3%forsteel,aluminiumandcopper,theriskist
4、hatfurtherescalationshaveamoremeaningfulimpact.China’sabilitytooffsettheserisksbecomesincreasinglyrelevanttothecommoditypriceoutlook.Acombinationofmonetaryeasing,stimulusthatsupportsdomesticdemand,andthenewBlueSkyDefencepolicyshouldactaseffectivebufferstoglobalgrow
5、thconcerns,supportingnear-termbulkpricinginparticular.Thisisnotfullyappreciatedbythemarketandhencecreatesopportunity,inourview.Themedium-termdemandoutlookremainssomewhatopaquehowever,asinfrastructuremaygetaboostbutpropertyisatriskofslipping.TrendsinChinawillneedtob
6、ecloselywatched.Don’tforgetthegearing:WeupdatenumbersbasedontherevisedpriceandFXforecastsinourcommodityreport,MetalsQuarterlyQ4,23October.Weextendourcautiousshort-termbasemetalsviewintoH12019,whilemodestlyraisingournear-termbulkspriceprofile.Relativegearingandexpos
7、uretobulkcommoditiesoverbasemetalsdrivesthechangestoour3-yearearningsprofileandvaluations.Ourlonger-termcommoditiesviewisunchanged:basetooutperformbulks.Movetoamorepositiveskewinourratings:Minersnowoffersubstantialvalue:wehaveeightBuys,twoHoldsandoneReduce.Inlargec
8、aps,wehighlightAALoverBHPona12-mview,remaincomfortablewithRIO’sironoreexposure,likeS32’sbalancedcapitalallocationandbelieveESGriskswilleventually
