资源描述：
《德银-欧洲-金属与采矿业-业绩展望：现金回报、成本和资金分配》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、EuropeanMetals&MiningDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateNorthAmerica26January2018EuropeanMetals&Metals&MiningMiningMarketUpdateMetals&MiningResultsseasonoutlook:cashreturns,costsandcapitalallocationinfocusLiamFitzpatrickEarningsseasonoutlookResearch
2、AnalystInthisreportwepublishourresultspreviewsforourEuropeanminingcoverage;asummaryofkeyitemsandupcomingcatalystsisprovidedinFig1.Wesee+44-207-541-3233fourdominantthemesintheupcomingresultsseason:1)AsignificantliftinPatrickJonescashreturnsin2018followingtwoye
3、arsofrapiddeleveraging;2)buildingResearchAnalystcyclicalcostpressuresthroughrawmaterialsandFX;3)increasinginvestor+44-20-754-53400focusonuseofsurpluscashflowsandcapitalallocation;M&Aactivityislikelytopickupbuttherearestillsomematerialdivestmentspossiblein2018
4、;4)RobinDraegerfurtherconsensusearningsupgrades(DBspot>20%aboveconsensusEBITDA).ResearchAssociateToppicks:RIO(leadingcashreturns,ongoingdivestmentofmarginalassets),+44-20-754-13352GLEN(undervaluedgrowth,basemetalexposure)andFM(superiormedium-termcoppergrowth)
5、.Sells:ANTO(greateropexrisk,valuation),BOL(smeltingmarginKeyChangespressure,FX,peakingzincprices),S32(exposuretorawmaterialpriceinflation).CompanyTargetPriceRatingFXPO.L280.00to-290.00Keycatalystsandeventsin1H18Source:DeutscheBankGLEN:furtherbolt-onM&Aactivity
6、seemslikely(seeourrecentreportforfurtherdetails);BHP:Onshoredivestment,negotiationswithunionsatEscondida(theToppicksexistingagreementexpireson1August2018),Samarcolegalupdates.FM:FirstQuantum(FM.TO),CAD19.00BuyprogressonCobrePanamaandsecuringrelatedprojectfinan
7、cing.Anglo:updateRioTinto(RIO.L),GBP3,918.50Buyonthecompany'sstrategicandportfoliooutlookposttherecentANCelections.Glencore(GLEN.L),GBP397.00BuySource:DeutscheBankCashreturnsCompaniesfeaturedForourEuropeancoverageweforecastYE17enetdebtof~$47bn(ND/EBITDANorskH
8、ydro(NHY.OL),NOK58.22Hold~0.8x),downfrom~$71bnYE16and~$99bnYE13.ThisshouldleadtoaFirstQuantum(FM.TO),CAD19.00Buysignificantliftincashreturnsin2018.OurdividendandbuybackassumptionsareKAZMin
