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时间:2018-03-10
《德银-中国-金属与采矿业-中国煤炭业:近期反弹之后,风险回报发生分化》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、ChinaCoalIndustryDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina30January2018ChinaCoalIndustryResourcesMetals&MiningIndustryUpdateRisk-rewarddeterioratesafterrecentralliesJamesKanQHDpricemighthitthepeaksoonResearchAnalystQHDcoalprice(5500kcalFOB,VATincluded)ha
2、shitRMB742/tlastweek.WithcoldweatherandlowcoastalIPPinventorydays,QHDpricemightstillhavesome+852-22036146roomtogoupincomingonetotwoweeks.Nevertheless,forcoaldemand/supplyToppicksbalanceinFebruary,thetightbalancemightstarttobeloosendueto(1)coalChinaShenhuaEnergy
3、BuydemandinFebruarynormallyabout20%+lowerthanJanresultingfromCNY(1088.HK),HKD24.10holidays;(2)ChinesegovernmentrequestedSOEcoalproducerstoproduceasChinaCoalEnergy(1898.HK),HKD4.16BuynormalduringCNY(noholidaysforcoalminers).Assuch,apossiblescenarioisSource:Deuts
4、cheBankthatQHDpriceinFebruarywillstarttocorrect.CompaniesfeaturedChinaShenhuaEnergyBuyCoalequitiesalsohadgoodralliesinthepastmonth(1088.HK),HKD24.10Inthepastmonth,Shenhua’ssharepricehasrallied20%andChinaCoalhas2016A2017E2018Erallied16%.Webelievethatinvestorsfina
5、llyarewillingtofactorinaRMB600/P/E(x)9.57.88.5tQHDcoalpriceassumptionintotheshareprices.AsshowninbelowFigureEV/EBITDA(x)4.74.95.01,withRMB600/tcoalpriceassumptionfor2018fullyearaverage(thisisalsoPrice/book(x)0.81.31.2DB’sassumption).Shenhuaistradingatabout8x201
6、8DBeNPATandChinaChinaCoalEnergy(1898.HK),HKD4.16BuyCoalistradingat10x2018DBeNPAT.Giventheabovescenarioaboutcoal2016A2017E2018Epricemomentumincomingmonths,wethinktherisk-rewardforcoalsectorhasP/E(x)23.99.410.0deterioratedafterrecentralliesforbothcoalpricesandequ
7、ityprices.EV/EBITDA(x)8.86.26.1Price/book(x)0.50.50.5Source:DeutscheBankFigure1:SensitivityanalysisofQHD5500kcalFOBpriceShenhuaChinaCoalQHD5500KPrice(RMB/t)NPAT(RMBbn)PERatioROENPAT(RMBbn)PERatioROE55039.51013%3.1153%60046.0815%4.5105%65052.0716%5.686%742(Curre
8、ntprice)60.0619%8.069%2018Consensus41.21013%4.0114%2018PBConsensus1.20.5Source:DeutscheBankandBloombergFinanceLPStaydefensiveandtopBuyremainsShenhuaIn2017,QHDpricehadcorrect
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