德银-金属与采矿业-全球铝业：市场因中国市场削减而趋紧-20170912-deutsche bank-global aluminium sector market tightening on china cuts

《德银-金属与采矿业-全球铝业：市场因中国市场削减而趋紧-20170912-deutsche bank-global aluminium sector market tightening on china cuts》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAustralasiaIndustryDateAustraliaGlobalAluminium12September2017M&M-OtherMetalsSectorRecommendationChangePaulYoungSharonDingMarkettighteningonChinacutsResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+61)28258-2587(+852)22035716paul-d.young@db.comsharon.ding@db.comGlobalal

2、uminiumheadingfordeficitonChinacuts.BUY;Alcoa,Rio,ChalcoPatrickJonesWithgreaterconfidenceforsmeltercurtailmentsinChinaandexChineseResearchAnalystproducersremainingdisciplined,wenowexpecttheglobalaluminiummarket(+44)20754-53400toshiftintomaterialdeficitsin2H17throughto2019.Ontheba

3、ckofatighterpatrick.jones1@db.commarketweupgradeouraluminiumpriceforecastsby11%in2H17toUS85c/lb,and12%for2018to94c/lb.WeexpectpricestobewellsupporteduntiltheJorgeBeristain,CFAendoftheChineseheatingseasoncutsinMarch2018.WealsoraiseourResearchAnalystaluminapriceforecastby5%in2H17to

4、US$330/tand7%in2018to(+1)203863-2381US$320/t.WeupgradeAlcoatoaBUYandmaintainBUYsonChalcoandRio.jorge.beristain@db.comChineseshutdownsleadingtoglobaldeficitsTheshutdownofillegalsmeltingcapacityinChinaisaccelerating.AtotalofLiamFitzpatrick5.7Mtofillegalcapacityacrossthreeprovincesh

5、asbeenidentifiedbytheResearchAnalystgovernment,withc.1.4MtinXinjiangand1.6-2.1MtinShandongalready(+44)207541-3233closed.Weunderstandthatfullcomplianceisrequiredby15October.liam.fitzpatrick@db.comTogetherwiththeexpected2+26+3heatingseasoncutswenowseetheChinesesurplusdecliningtojus

6、t0.6Mtin2018evenwithatleast2.5Mtoflegalcapacitybeingadded.Wenowforecastaglobalannualdeficitof0.5MtKeyChangesfrom2017-2019drivenbyatighteningChinesemarketandwideningRoW(ex-CompanyTargetPriceRatingChina)deficitsof1.3Mtin2017,growingto1.8Mtby2019.WedonotexpectRIO.AX73.00to-majorWest

7、ernWorldrestartsapartfromAlcoa’sWarricksmelter(~160ktpa),75.00(AUD)Rusal’sTaishet(~750ktpa)andVedanta’sJharsugudaexpansion(~1.25Mtpa).S32.AX2.75to2.90(AUD)-AWC.AX1.95to2.15(AUD)-Aluminainbalance,seabornebauxiteremainsinoversupplyNHY.OL50.00to-WeseethecurrenthighseaborneandChinese

8、aluminaprices(US$345/t,60.00(NOK)RMB3,00