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1、DeutscheBankResearchSub-SaharanAfricaEconomicsDateSouthAfrica10July2017SpecialReportSouthAfrica'screditdowngradeinEMcontextDaneleeMasiaChallengingsomeofthemisperceptionsoverdowngradeimplicationsSincemostofourforecastsarerelativelybullishagainstthebackdr
2、opofmoreEconomistdowngradepressure,thisnotecontainsmoredetailssubstantiatingourviews.+27-11-775-7267Wewouldliketochallengesomeofthethinkingthatstillexistsinsomediscussionswehavewithourclientbase-i.e.theworstmaystillbeaheadforSouthAfricaiffurtherdowngrad
3、escomeourway.Generalmarketperceptionsinclude:firstly,downgradescauserecessions,andleadtohigherinflation,aweakerexchangerateandpolicyratehikes.Secondly,foreignbuyingoflocalassetsnotonlydryup,butalsoreverse.Thirdly,theseramificationsarenegativeformarkets,inc
4、reasingpressureonbondyieldsanddownsideriskstoequities.EMsaremostlyfineafterlosingIGstatusandSAshouldbenoexceptionInournote,wefindthat:1)recessionrisksprecededowngrades;inflationtopswithinaquarteroflosingIGstatus;exchangeratepressureslastnolongerthanthreeto
5、sixmonths;andcentralbankscutratestorevivegrowth;2)sustainedcapitaloutflowsareunlikely,butoffshorebuyingtapersoncethesovereignslipsbelowIG;3)bondyieldsrallysignificantlyonetotwoyearsafterthedowngrades,despiteforcedsellinganddownwardpressureonequitiesreverse
6、alotsooner.TheselessonsarehighlightedinFigures6-15forEMcountriesthatlostinvestmentgrade(IG)post2000.SouthAfricashouldbenoexceptiontothesetrends,inourview.LostinvestmentgradeduringNenegate?InFigures16to27weillustratelocaltrendsagainstpreviousEMdowngradec
7、ases.MostofSouthAfrica'strendswhichcorrespondtolessonsfromtheEMdowngradesample,actuallyhappedbefore,duringandafterthefiringoftheformerFinanceMinisterNene(knownasNenegateinDecember2015,Figures18-23).NenegatetrulymarksthepointwhenSouthAfricaappearstohavelo
8、stIGstatusininvestors'minds.Thiswouldbecongruentwithothermarketexperiences,asdowngradesareanticipatedwellinadvanceofratingagencies'actions.Domestic/globalconditionsbecomethemaindriversofmarketsagainafterlosingIG.Ourmainfocusforth
