德意志银行-亚洲信贷-asia credit monthly：a volatile carry-20170721-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDate21July2017HarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditMonthly(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comAvolatilecarryViacheslavShilin,MBAResearchAnalyst(+65)64235726Wehadarguedinour2HOutlookonJune1that3Qwillbeacarryplayastheviach

2、eslav.shilin@db.combattlebetweenEconomics(goodmacrodata)andPolitics(geopoliticalnoise)continues.Thishaslargelybeenthecase,withspreadsalmostflatand10yrVikashAgarwalla,CFAUSTabout5bpwideraswewrite.TotalreturnsinceJune1is+0.5%vs.ResearchAnalyst+3.2%seentillendo

3、fMay(Figure1).Wemaintainourviewfortherestof3Q(+65)64235718andwilltakeastanceon4Qdependingonhowthefollowingeventsplayout-vikash.agarwalla@db.comAsia'searningsseasoninAugust,GermanelectionsinSeptember,USpoliticalgridlock&debtceilingissue,RMB'sappreciationtrend

4、(keyrisktotheChinaKarenKwan,MBAbid),heavysupply,oilprice,etc.Thoughvaluationshavelookedtightforawhile,technicalsandfundamentalsarestillsupportive.The'goldilocks'macroResearchAnalystenvironmentalsocontinueswithstronggrowthandlowinflation.Havingsaid(+65)642353

5、87this,weexpectthecarrytobevolatile,especiallyintheHYsegment,givenkaren.kwan@db.comidiosyncraticstories.FrancoLamThemescoveredResearchAnalystStatuscheckofourstrategy(+852)22036226EventriskinHYisnotsymptomaticofasystemiccrisisfranco.lam@db.comPreferencefor

6、IGFinancialsoverCorporatesChinapropertysectorheadlinesFrontiersovereignsCanRMBderailtheChinabid?HighestconvictiontradeideasSovereigns:BuyMongolia2024s;SellSriLanka2026s,Philippines2042s.Financials:Buy–WooriAT1s,BEAAT1&T2,Mizuho2021s,NipponLife42c22s,BoC

7、Avi2026s,AsahiLifeperps,Huarong2047s&Snrperps,Sunshine2026s.Sell–SBIAT1,BoChina2025s,CindaAT1,BoComAT1;BoComFL2021s,CITICLtd2023&2026,FWDperpsC22s,Mizuho2024s.IGCorps:BuyBharti2024s,Bluestar2021s,ChemChinaEUR2021s,StateGrid2027s;SellBaidu2022s,Lenovo2022s.

8、HY/UnratedCorps:BuyEvergrande2023s,ChinaGrandAutoperpsC19,Indika2022s;SellDelhiAirports2026s,RenewPower2022s;AlamSutera2020s&2022s;SwitchfromRCOM2020sintoGCX2019s.KeyrecommendationchangesSovere