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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaCreditDateHYStrategy4July2017IGStrategySovereignsHarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalystAsiaCreditStrategy(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comCanRMBderailtheChinabid?KalvinFernandesResearchAssociatekalvin.fernandes@db.comWehadmentionedinour2017Outlookreporto
2、nJan5thatlocalratesandFX,particularlyinChina,isthebiggestidiosyncraticriskforAsiacreditthisyearandthatviewhasn'treallychanged.TheimportanceofChinabidforourassetclassiswellknown.AdepreciatingRMBhasbeenoneofthekeyfactorsdrivingthebidfordollarassets.Withthecurrencynowappreciating,
3、andthedomesticbondyieldsmateriallyhigherYTD,thisbidisunderscrutiny.Inthisnote,wetrytoanalyzetheimpactofthesetwofactorsontheChinabid.Thereareacoupleofchallengeswithsuchanexercise,oneofwhichisthelackofconcretedatatoquantifythedemand.Andtheotheristhefactthatrecentsell-offinChinese
4、credits(moreHYthanIG)hasbeenaccompaniedbyidiosyncraticevents(corporategovernance,highsupply,etc.).Webelievethissell-offismainlybecauseofsuchone-offeventsandnotduetoanystructuralshiftindemand,atleastjustyet.WeuseChina'sbondsupply,spreadperformance,FXdepositswithonshorebanks,thei
5、rUSDbondinvestmentsandouron-the-groundcolorasproxiestogaugethestrengthofthebid.Weconcludethatthebidhasmellowedabitthisyear,buttheweakeningisnotmaterialandtheoveralltrendisstillstrong,especiallyforIG.Thissaid,webelieveaprolongedRMBappreciationcouldchangethings.6.50isperhapsanimp
6、ortantpsychologicalleveltowatchinthiscontext.Hence,wearenotoverlyworriedintheimmediatefuture,butcertainlysomethingwearewatchingquitecloselyandhighlightthisasakeyriskfor2H.ThefirstsignsofrealweakeningintheChinademandwillpossiblycomeintheformofaconsistentslowdowninprimaryissuance
7、fromChinesecompanies.Separately,Asia'slocalbidgoesbeyondChina,withS.Korea,TaiwanandPhilippinesbeingtheothercountriesthatarewellknownforit.ThegenericconceptofhigheronshoreyieldsandstrongerAsiaFXpotentiallythreatentheentireregionandnotjustChina.Wedoacknowledgethoughthatappreciati
8、ngEMFXingeneralwillbeagoodsignalforEMrisk.____________
