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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsUpdateDateChina13June2017ZhiweiZhang,PhDChiefEconomistChina:RevisingRMBforecast(+852)22038308zhiwei.zhang@db.comWestillexpectdepreciation,butatamoregradualpaceWereviseyearendforecastofUSDCNYto7.1,7.6and7.9in2017,2018and2019respectively
2、(7.4,8.1and8.1beforerevision).TheimpliedRMBdepreciationagainsttheCFETSbasketwillbearound1.7%,4.2%,and5.6%intheseyears.ThesurprisinglystrongRMBsofarthisyearbenefittedfrom(1)effectivecapitalcontrols,atleastintheshortterm;(2)thestrengthofothermajorcurrenciesagainstthedol
3、lar;and(3)strongerthanexpectedgrowthandhigherratesinChina.ThesepositivefactorsforRMBmaynothelpinH2andthenextfewyears.DBeconomistsandstrategistsexpectothermajorcurrenciestodepreciateagainstthedollarinH2.GrowthinChinaislikelytoslow.Whenitslowsthemonetarypolicystancewill
4、likelyloosenagain,bringingdomesticinterestratesdown.Capitalcontrolswilllikelybecomelesseffectiveinthelongterm.China’scurrentaccountsurpluswilllikelyshrinkinthenextfewyearsChina’sservicestradedeficithaswidenedrapidlysince2010.In2016itreached2.3%ofGDP,offsettingmorethan
5、halfofChina’sgoodstradesurplus.Inparticular,Chineseoverseatravelexpendituresoaredto2.3%ofGDPin2016.Latestdatashowitcontinuestogrowin2017.Akeydriveroftherisingservicedeficitisthewealtheffectfromthepropertybubble.Weestimatethatin2016,forresidentsintier1andtier2citiesinC
6、hina,theirwealthincreasefrompropertypriceappreciationwasalmosttwicethesizeoftheirdisposableincomeinthesameyear.Suchmassivewealtheffectledtosoaringdemandforforeignservicessuchaseducation,tourismandmedicaltreatment.Ifpropertypricesremainhigh,thistrendwilllikelypersist,a
7、ndputpressureonthecurrentaccountsurplus.FC1:GoodsandservicestradebalancesFC2:Overseatravelexpenditure,percentofGDP8%ofGDP7.4Goodstradebalance3%ofGDP19821985199019956.46.52000200520102016Servicestradebalance62.45.32.32.34.44.53.843.621.93.02.72.72.02.12.121.71.51.601-0
8、.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.6-0.40.7-0.7-1.0-2-1.20.4-1.9-1.8-2.3-4000GermanyJapanUnitedUnitedKoreaChina20200120022
