China RMB forecast report 2014

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1、AsiainFocusGEMFixedIncomeStrategy&Economics

2、Asia13March2014CNYtakingcenterstageAlbertLeung+85221617137EmergingAsiaFIStrategistMerrillLynch(HongKong)Whatwethink:ChinaconcernshavenotweighedmeaningfullyonAsiaFXalbert.leung@baml.comandreactionhasbeenlimitedtoCNY/CNHsofar.ButweremaincautiousAsiaS

3、eeTeamPageforFullListofContributorsFX,expectingsomefollowthrough.Eventually,AsiarateswillfollowUSrateshigher,butweakChinasentimentisaheadwindtoourpaytradesinthenearterm.Howtoposition:OnFX,westayshortPHPandTHBandlongCNHpoints.Onrates,wearestillpayinThailand,KoreaandIndia,andreceiveMalaysia.Bu

4、tinlightofanotherBankofThailandratecut,weplantoreassessourpayThailandpositionwhenmarketsettles.David.Bussmann@asiamezzanine.com.ThisreportisintendedforTradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperiencein

5、Unauthorizedredistributionofthisreportisprohibited.FXmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies.BofAMerrillLynchdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterest

6、thatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage6to8.AnalystCertificationonPage5.LinktoDefinitionsonpage5.11368333AsiainFocus13March2014AsiaAlbertLeungCNYtakingcenterstage+8522161713

7、7Whatwethink:ChinaconcernshavenotweighedmeaningfullyonAsiaFXandreactionhasbeenlimitedtoCNY/CNHsofar.ButweremaincautiousAsiaFX,expectingsomefollowthrough.Eventually,AsiarateswillfollowUSrateshigher,butweakChinasentimentisaheadwindtoourpaytradesinthenearterm.Howtoposition:OnFX,westayshortPHPa

8、ndTHBandlongCNHpoints.Onrates,wearestillpayinThailand,KoreaandIndia,andreceiveMalaysia.ButinlightofanotherBankofThailandratecut,weplantoreassessourpayThailandpositionwhenmarketsettles.LimitedChinaimpactonAsiaFXsofar,butit’searlyChinaisclearly