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1、FixedBroadbandAccessEquipmentForecastReport:2011–16ForecastbaselineraisedforDSL,CMTS,andFTTxequipmentsales;one-thirdof2011globalspendinglikelytobeinChinaReferenceCode:OT00062-004PublicationDate:May2011Author:KamaliniGangulySUMMARYInanutshellOvumforecastsanove
2、rallflattrendinfixedbroadbandaccessnetworkspending(DSL,CMTS,FTTxcombined),butweareraisingthebaselinebecause2010resultscameinsignificantlyaboveourexpectations.SpendinginChinagrewenormouslyin2010andistheprimarycontributortothehigherbaseline.Wenowexpecttotalreve
3、nuesfor2011–16toreach$44bn,versusourearlierforecastof$37bnfor2010–15.Broadbandsubscribergrowthwillcontinuethroughouttheforecastperiod,butweforeseechangesinthemixofaccesstechnologies,withDSL'ssharedecliningasFTTH/Badoptionaccelerates.FTTH/Bsubscriberswillremai
4、nasthefastest-growingfixedaccesscategorywithaCAGRof22%,reachingalmost30%ofthetotalin2016andsurpassingthenumberofCMTSsubscribersin2013.GovernmentsupporttorolloutnationalbroadbandnetworksremainsaprimarydriverofNGA(next-generationaccess)networkseverywhere,asdoes
5、competition.Inmanydevelopedcountrieswithhighbroadbandpenetration,capacityupgrades,morethansubscribergrowth,willdrivespending.FixedBroadbandAccessEquipmentForecastReport:2011–16(OT00062-004)©Ovum(Published05/2011)Page1Thisreportisalicensedproductandisnottobeph
6、otocopiedOvumviewFigure1showstheforecastrangeforthemostlikely,optimistic,andpessimisticscenarios.Broadbandaccessactivityisvery"bursty"andpronetocycles,sotheslightupsanddownsintheindividualyearsarelessrelevantthantheoverallflattoslightlydecliningtrendduringthe
7、nextfiveyears.ThisparticularforecastcyclewillbedominatedbyChina'sinfluence,whichwebelievewillbeparticularlypronouncedin2011–12.Figure1:Broadbandaccessequipmentforecastrange,2011–16OptimisticMost likelyPessimistic $12,000$10,000$8,000$6,000$millions$4,000$2,00
8、0$0200820092010201120122013201420152016Optimistic$6,609$6,322$8,658$9,541$8,766$8,826$8,806$8,583$8,362Most likely$6,609$6,322$8,658$7,951$7,305$7,355$7,339$7,152$6,968Pessimistic $6,609$
