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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaGasUtilities19July2017UtilitiesUtilitiesRecommendationChangeHanyuZhangMichaelTong,CFAUpgradingKunlun/TowngastoBuy,ResearchAssociateResearchAnalyst(+852)22036207(+852)22036167downgradingChinaGastoHoldhanyu.zhang@db.commichael.tong@db.co
2、mFocusonlaggards:BEHL,Towngas,andKunlunKeyChangesSustainedvolumerecovery,policyclarityandpositiveread-acrossfromtheCompanyTargetPriceRatingFY17(Maryearend)resultsfromChinaGashaveboostedthegasutilitiesby2688.HK49.80to-15-43%inthepastmonth.Wearenowmorepositiveabouttheoutlookfor60.10(HKD)vo
3、lumesandmarginsinbothnearandmediumtermandthereforeraise1193.HK26.00to-earningsfor2017-19EandliftTPsby21-35%.Atthesametime,wedonot31.60(HKD)expectmanysurprisesfrominterimresultsandbelievethatanyfurtherrerating1083.HK4.60to6.40(HKD)HoldtoBuywouldrequiremuchstrongerandmoresustainablevolumeg
4、rowthand0135.HK6.40to8.50(HKD)HoldtoBuyadditionalpolicycatalysts.Afterthestrongrally,wedowngradeChinaGasto0384.HK15.80toBuytoHoldHoldandrecommendlaggardsincludingBEHL,Towngas,andKunlun.20.10(HKD)Source:DeutscheBankRecentpoliciessupportdemandgrowthandreducemarginconcernsFournoticesissuedr
5、ecentlybytheNDRCaimtodiversifygassupplies,lowerToppicksgasprices,andstimulategasdemand,whichconfirmsourexpectationssetBeijingEnterprises(0392.HK),HKD41.80BuyoutinPolicyroll-outcouldbeintensiveinthenextfewmonths,11May.TheseKunlunEnergy(0135.HK),HKD7.54Buypoliciesbringbettersectoroutlookfo
6、ramoresustainabledemandgrowthTowngasChina(1083.HK),HKD5.44BuyrecoveryandfewerrisksassociatedwithgassalesmarginandconnectionSource:DeutscheBankfees,which,aswearguedbefore,arethemainreasonforrecentrerating.CompaniesFeaturedNationwidepolicyroll-outstotakeapause,regionalexecutionstofollowFor
7、therestof2017,weexpectfewernationwidepoliciestoberolledoutENNEnergy(2688.HK),HKD52.75Buybesidesthepotentialexecutionoftrunk-linetariffcuts(beforeend-2017).2016A2017E2018EHowever,weexpectmoreregionalnoticestobeissuedaimingtopromotegasP/E(x)11.7014.3412.13usageandregulatetr
