china oil and gas：refining margins improve with lower feedstock cost.pdf china oil and gas：refining margins improve with lower feedstock cost.pdf

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1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch09May2013ChinaoilandgasRefiningmarginsimprovewithlowerfeedstockcostsandhigherproductpricesFuelpricesadjustedaccordingtoamendedpricingmechanism:TheOil,GasandPetrochemicalsNDRCisraisinggasolineanddieselafterthe10-dayperiodismetsinceACSophieTanthepricecuton25April.Gaso

2、lineanddieselpriceswillincreaseby(852)28008531Rmb95/tonandaddUS$1/bbltoourtheoreticalGRMs.Thecutinlatesophie.lm.tan@jpmorgan.comAprilhadreducedmarginsbyUS$4/bbl.CrudeoilfeedstockcostsforSamuelLee,CFAACMayfellUS$5/bblM/MandtheoreticalGRMlossesnarrowedtoUS$1-(852)2800-85362/bbl.samuel.sw.lee@j

3、pmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedCrudeoilimportcostfellinApril:TheaverageimportcostdeclinedUS$5/bblM/MtoUS$106/bblforApril,loweringthefeedstockcostsforrefinerythroughputinMay.OurtheoreticalbreakevencrudecostforChinesetheoreticalGRMs-US$/bblChineserefinersattheseproductpric

4、elevelsfellUS$3/bblM/Mto15150US$104/bbl.TheofficialsupplypriceforjetfuelinMaywasreducedby7%M/Mand12%Y/YtoRmb6950/ton(US$143/bbl),loweringour5100theoreticalGRMsbyUS$0.5/bbl.-550Oilimportsgained:Netcrudeoilimportsrose4%Y/YandM/Mto-15JaJuJaJuJaJuJaJuJa05.7mnBOPDinApril.Productimportsrose28%Y/Y

5、andM/Mto1mnn-0l-0n-1l-1n-1l-1n-1l-1n-1990011223BOPD,whileexportswere4%higherM/Mand61%higherY/YatChina'stheoreticalGRM(US$/bbl-0.7mnBOPD.NetproductimportstripledM/Mbutdeclined10%Y/YtoLHS)Crudecost1-monthdelay(US$/bbl-0.3mnBOPD.PeakrefinerymaintenanceseasoninthesecondquarterisRHS)likelytomaint

6、ainproductexportsatthislevel.Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Bloomberg.Chineseoil-productprices-Rmb/tonAprilMayChange-%Diesel814982441%Gasoline896290571%Jetfuel74376950-7%Fueloil502650510.5%Source:NDRC,J.P.Morganestimates.Note:GasolineanddieselareanaverageofofficialretailpricesannouncedbytheNDRC.

7、JetfuelistheofficialpricedeterminedeverymonthbytheNDRC.Fueloilpricesareanaverageofdailyfuturesprices.Seepage3foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinit