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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateAsia21June2017CEEMEALatinAmericaHarshAgarwal,CFAResearchAnalyst(+65)64236967harsh.agarwal@db.comEMChartbook-Turningneutral+PicksEduardoVieira&PansResearchAnalyst(+1)212250-7568WeenteredtheyearwithaconstructiveviewonEMcorporatecredi
2、t.Thenineduardo.vieira@db.comourlastchartpackinMarchwearguedthatinvestorsoftengettooboggeddownwithfundflowsforEM,andintheprocessmissoutonsomeofotherHimanshuPorwalimportantfactorsthatdriveit-underlyinggrowth,commodities,USD,China,ResearchAnalystrates,etc.Whilealmostallthesefactorsare
3、stillsupportive,theperformance(+44)20754-74234sofarthisyearhasbeensolidwith30bptighteningand+4.5%totalreturnsashimanshu.porwal@db.comwewrite(Figure1).WetakethisopportunitytoturnmoreneutralonEMcorporatecredit,expectingthenextquartertobelargelyrangeboundforspreadsandcarrybeingthenameo
4、fthegame.Wethinkrisk/rewardlookslargelybalancedwithfundamentals(lowdefaultrates)andtechnicalsstrong,butvaluationschallengingandeventrisksontherise.OtherkeyrisksinourFigure1:EMYTDspreadsandtotalviewareanoilcollapse,geopolitics,continuationintherecenttrendofsoftermacrodata,Fedbalances
5、heetunwind,etc.returnsASW,bp105EMex-sovTREMex-sovspreads(R)290Asiastrategy104280Asdetailedinour2HOutlookreportpublishedonJune1,wemaintainourpreferenceforHYoverIGintotalreturnsterms,albeitwithamarginallylower103270convictioninspreadtermsgivenpickupinidiosyncraticstoriesandsofter10226
6、0outlookforcommodities.PleaseseeFigures2&3forYTDperformance.Carry101250onHYcan'tbeignoredinarange-boundtradingenvironment.Andtobeclearoncommodities,whiletheoutlookisn’tgreat,wedon’texpectashockeither.100240WegenerallyremainnegativeoilandhaveSellsthereintheIGspace(OilIndia,992301-Jan
7、17-Jan2-Feb18-Feb6-Mar22-Mar7-Apr23-Apr9-May25-May10-JunCOSL),butarecomfortablewiththenon-oilcommoditiesandareexpressingSource:MarkitthisviewthroughBuysinHY(BUMA,Chalco,Indika,Vedanta).WearealsonegativeonthepropertysectorinIndia&IndonesiaandrecommendstayingawayfromnameslikeAlamSuter
8、aandLodha.InIndiaHY
