德意志银行-新兴市场-em macro and strategy focus-20170630-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchGlobalEconomicsDateEmergingMarketsForeignExchange30June2017UnitedStatesRatesCreditEditorsDrausioGiacomelliEMMacroandStrategyFocusDrausioGiacomelliStrategist(+1)212250-7355(+1)212250JedEvansdrausio.giacomelli@db.com(+1)212250-8605SebastianBrownEconomicsFocus:WeexpectThail

2、and,MalaysiaandSouthKoreatokeeptheirpolicyratesunchangedamidmixedinflationdata.Singapore’sgrowthislikelyStrategist–LatAmtodisappoint,whileexportsimproveelsewhere.WealsoexpecttheNBPand(+1)212250-8191BoItostayonhold.WeseeonlyslightmonthlyincreasesinpricesinCE3,RussiaandIsrael,whileTurkey’sinflations

3、taysindouble-digitsamidCADGautamKalaniwidening.WeseeColombia’sinflationconvergingtotheupper-bandaftertwoStrategist–EMEAyears,whileMexico’sCPIreleaseiscrucialforBanxico’sdecisioninAugust.+44(20)754-57066StrategyFocus:HighercoreratesraisethebarforperformanceforEMinH2butgradualrepricingisunlikelytodi

4、sruptinflows,inourview.FocusonJulianaLeecurrencieslesssensitivetoDXYandcommoditiesandlocalmarketswhererealSeniorEconomistratesarehighandinflationdynamicsaremostsupportive.+852(2203)8312FX:WeseeEMFXholdingupwellwhiletheriseinrealratesisgradual.WeexpectBRLandMXNtoremainrangeboundstayshortUSD/THB,bu

5、tGuilhermeMaronelookforbetterlevelsonUSD/TWD.StaylongTRY,CZKandPLNStrategist-LatAm(valuationsandpositioningaresupportive).Weremainconcernedonthe(+1)212250-8640commodityexportersRUB,ZAR,andCLP–bothagainsttheUSDandasfundingforcarry-positivelongARS/CLPpositions.KeeplongCNH/KRW.ElinaRibakovaRates:Wes

6、eethemoveincoreratesasaretracementratherthanatrend.Low-yieldersacrossAsiaandEMEAweremoreexposedbuttheirgoodChiefEconomistperformancevs.corerateshighlightstheresilienceofinflows.Mexicohas(+44)207547-1340stillmosttoreprice(favorthebelly).FavorthebellyalsoinRussia,Turkey,andPoland,andkeepdurationexpo

7、sureinPeru(viaSob’26sandChristianWietoska2Y-5YXCCY).InflationisbiasedtothedownsideinBrazil(andsoisourStrategist–EMEA8.50%Seliccall),buttightenstopinfront-endreceiversonvaluation.We(+44)20754-52424seesomevalueinCo