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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:PageBNPParibasLondonBranchLOWFORLONGER-PART23-5WikeGroenenberg,HeadofEmergingMarketsResearch,CEEMEA&APACThe‘lowforlonger’inflationthemeclearlydominatedmarketmovesthisweek.Wepresentournewtraderecommendationsagainstthisbackdrop.PiotrChwi
2、ejczak,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistAndrewMacFarlane,CFA,CreditCEEMEAStrategistTHEMESOFTHEWEEKSaiUlluri,CEEMEAGraduateChina:Staythecourse6-7TurkEkonomiBankA.S.AfterUSDCNY’sfalltoour6.75target,weareextendingthetargetonourshortErkinIsik,CFA,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistUSDCNHandNDFr
3、ecommendationsto6.70.SwapratesarelikelytoremaininBNPParibasSouthAfricaarange,inourview,butweseeroomforCNHCCStodeclinefurther.JeffreySchultz,SeniorEconomistAsia:TakeprofitonshortSGDvsKRW8Wehavelockedinprofitofabout2.1%onourshortSGDversusKRWposition.BNPParibasSingapo
4、reBranchMirzaBaig,HeadofFX&IRAsiaStrategistSouthAfrica,Turkey,Russia:Refocusingoninflation9-13AltazDagha,AU/NZIRStrategistWiththecurrenttrendsincommoditymarkets,lastyear’shighinflationprintsDawnKwa,AsiaGraduatemaynotberepeatedinQ42017suchthatrealratesrisefurther.We
5、analysewherethismaytriggerpolicyactiontoinformourtraderecommendations.BancoBNPParibasBrasilS.ASouthAfrica:Deepeningoftheeasingcycle14-17GabrielGersztein,HeadFX&IRLatamStrategyWethinkthemarketislikelytopricein100bpofratecutsintotal,reinforcingSamuelCastro,FX&IRLatam
6、Strategistourrecommendationtoreceiveratesinthebelly.GustavoMendonca,FX&IRLatamStrategistCEEMEAcredit:PreparefortheAugustgrindtighter18-20BNPParibasChinaLimitedAdovishUSratesoutlookshouldbenefitEMcreditaslowvolatilityislikelytoresultininvestorsbuyinghigh-yieldbondsi
7、nCEEMEA.WerecommendbuyingKunShan,ChinaStrategistTURKEY$65/8%’45swhichstandoutasthecheapestbondinourmonitor.TianheJi,ChinaStrategistrEskom:Creditfairlyvalued,butriskstoemergeinthelonger-term21-27WebelieveEskom’s$bondsarefairlyvaluedandrecommendthatreal-moneyaccounts
8、bemarket-weight.Thelong-termoutlookisconcerninghowever.EM/Latam:HiddenlinkbetweenChinaPPIandriskassetperformance28-31ContinuingdisinflationinChin
