巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行指南-20171009-bnp paribas-bnp paribas steer

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistNatalieRickard,FXStrategistUSDCADshorttermvalue(FV=1.2390)EURHUFshorttermvalue(FV=307.81)1.293121.273101.253081.233061.213041.1930212-Jul-201712-Aug-201712-S

2、ep-201712-Jul-201712-Aug-201712-Sep-2017STEERUSDCADSTEEREURHUFBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals09-Oct-17SHORTEURHUF312.10310.54312.88-0.00ClosedSignals06-Oct-17SHORTUSDZAR13.6708--

3、13.7562(06-Oct-17)-0.6206-Oct-17SHORTUSDMXN18.4956--18.5723(06-Oct-17)-0.41ExistingSignals06-Oct-17SHORTUSDCAD1.25781.23901.2687-0.2806-Oct-17SHORTEURNOK9.37529.26189.4320--0.0205-Oct-17SHORTEURSEK9.52479.45679.5750--0.01RecentlyClosedSignals05-Oct-17SHORTUSDTRY3.5762--

4、3.5898(06-Oct-17)-0.3804-Oct-17SHORTUSDCLP630.95--632.95(05-Oct-17)-0.32Notes:TheUSDcontinuestoappearovervaluedaccordingtoSTEER,againstbothG10andEMcurrencies.STEERremainsshortUSDCADthisweektargeting1.2390,andinEMseesZAR,IDRandCLPascurrencieswhichareparticularlyunderval

5、uedversustheUSD.STEERalsosignalsthatG10commoditycurrenciesappeartohaveunderreactedtotheriseinoilprices.InadditiontoshortUSDCAD,STEERisalsoshortEURNOKtargeting9.2618.IntheG10,STEERisalsoshortEURSEKtargeting9.4567.TherallyinEURSEKatthestartofthemonthappearedoverdonegive

6、nthepair’sshort-termfundamentals,andSTEERsignalsEURSEKhasroomtodeclinefurther.InEM,STEERclosedoutitsshortUSDZARandUSDMXNsignalsforanetlossof1.03%,andtodayinitiatesashortEURHUFsignal.EURHUF’sSTEERhasdeclinedasHungarian2yyieldshaverisensuggestingthattheriseinEURHUFthismo

7、nthisoverdone.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)2.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5GBPUSDAUDUSDNZDUSDUSDJPYEURSEKUSDCADEURUSDEURCHFEURNOKEURGBP02-Oct-20170

8、9-Oct-2017CurrencyGBPUSDAUDUSDNZDUSDUSDJPYEURSEKUSDCADEURUSDEURCHFEURNOKEURGBPSTEER1.34010.79110.7104112.919.4