巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行指示-20170925-bnp paribas-bnp paribas steer

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistSamLynton-Brown,FXStrategistUSDCADshorttermvalue(FV=1.2146)USDTRYshorttermvalue(FV=3.5481)1.313.601.291.273.551.253.501.233.451.213.401.1928-Jun-201728-Aug-201728-Jun-201728-Jul-2017

2、28-Aug-2017STEERUSDCADSTEERUSDTRYBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals–nonewsignalstodayClosedSignals14-Sep-17SHORTEURPLN4.2842--4.2717(25-Sep-17)0.2921-Sep-17SHORTUSDSGD1.3520--1.3447(22-Sep-17)0.5421-Sep-17L

3、ONGUSDCOP2906.0000--2894.3300(22-Sep-17)-0.40ExistingSignals21-Sep-17SHORTUSDCAD1.23411.21461.2432-0.0919-Sep-17SHORTEURSEK9.53549.38149.5877--0.0222-Sep-17LONGUSDTRY3.49393.52233.4797-0.42Notes:STEER™hascloseditsshortEURPLN(0.29%gain),shortUSDSGD(0.54%gain)andlongUSDCOP(0.40%loss)signalsforan

4、et0.43%profit.EURPLNhasconvergedwithitsfairvalueandUSDSGDisnowtradingslightlyrichversusitsSTEER.USDCOPcontinuestoappearverycheap,butthemodelispreventedfrominitiatinganewsignaluntilWednesday27September.InG10,STEERremainsshortUSDCADtargeting1.2146andshortEURSEKtargeting9.3814.USDCADfairvaluehasb

5、eenstableinrecentweeksdespitetheriseinspot.EURSEK’sfairvaluecontinuestodivergefurtherfromspot,withthedeviationnow2.61z-scores.InEM,STEERremainslongUSDTRY,withspottradingveryclosetothetargetonthetradeof3.5223.FollowingtheelectioninNewZealand,STEERsignalsNZDUSDistradingslightlyrich(0.68z-scores)

6、.ThemodelforEURUSDremainsnotcointegrated.USDJPYistradingislinewithitsfairvalue.GBP’srecentgainshavegoneslightlytoofarrelativetotheriseinUKfront-endyields,accordingtotherelationshipscapturedbySTEER.GBPUSD’sfairvaluecomesinat1.3442.,suggestinga0.86z-scoredeviation.Pleaserefertoimportantinformat

7、ionattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Model–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0AUDUSDUSDJPYNZDUSDEURGBPGBPUSDEURNOKUSDCADEURUSDEURCHFEURSEK18-Sep-201725-Sep