巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行指引

《巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-巴黎银行指引》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BNPParibasLondonBranchMichaelSneyd,CFA,GlobalHeadofFXStrategy&Cross-AssetStrategistKrisGjini,GraduateUSDZARshorttermvalue(FV=14.1559)GBPUSDshorttermvalue(FV=1.3268)1.3814.641.3614.141.3413.641.321.3013.141.2812.641.2606-Sep-201706-Oct-20

2、1706-Nov-201706-Sep-201706-Oct-201706-Nov-2017STEERUSDZARSTEERGBPUSDBNPParibasSTEER™Model-TradingSignalsEntryDatePositionEntryRateTargetStopLossCloseRateReturn(%)SignalsUpdatedTodayNewSignals–nonewsignalstodayClosedSignals–noclosedsignalstodayExistingSignals01-Dec-17

3、LONGUSDZAR13.679613.881613.5786-0.62RecentlyClosedSignals06-Nov-17SHORTUSDCAD1.2769--1.2726(22-Nov-17)0.3322-Nov-17LONGUSDKRW1088.85--1085.03(23-Nov-17)-0.3522-Nov-17LONGUSDZAR13.8872--14.0743(24-Nov-17)1.3528-Nov-17LONGUSDZAR13.7284--13.6338(28-Nov-17)-0.6928-Nov-17

4、LONGUSDKRW1084.25--1080.31(29-Nov-17)-0.36Notes:OverthepastmonthEURUSDhasbeenmovinginlinewithitsSTEER™.OverthepastweektheriseoftheUS10yyieldhascausedSTEERtostartdeclining,reaching1.1797.OptimismaroundBrexitnegotiationshasledGBPUSDtoriseto1.2z-scoreaboveitsSTEERof1.

5、3268.Whilethedeviationisnotlargeenoughtotriggerashorttradingsignal,thissuggeststhatthereisscopefortheGBPtodeclineifpoliticaluncertaintyremainshigh.STEERremainslongUSDZARtargeting13.8816.FairvaluehasremainedfairlystablesincethepeakoftheEMsell-offlastmonth.Headinginto

6、SouthAfricaGDPreleaseonTuesday,STEERcontinuestoindicatethatUSDZARhasscopetorally.EURNOKremainsthemostovervaluedpairintheG10,tradingat2.9z-scoresaboveitsSTEER9.53.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereportwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasSTEER™Mode

7、l–G10Deviationfromshort-termvalue(z-score)3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0EURCHFEURGBPUSDCADAUDUSDNZDUSDUSDJPYEURUSDGBPUSDEURSEKEURNOK27-Nov-201704-Dec-2017CurrencyEURCHFEURGBPUSDCADAUDUSDNZDUSDUSDJPYEURUSDGBPUSDEURSEKEURNOKSTEER1.17470.88921.27390.75930.6833

8、112.771.17971.32689.86599.5363Spot1.16600.88201.27200.75800.6840113.001.18401.34209.94609.8320z-score-0.71(-0.76%)-0.43(-0.81%)-0.1