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1、PageThisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:THEMESOFTHEWEEKBNPParibasLondonBranchWikeGroenenberg,HeadofEmergingMarketsResearch,SouthAfrica:Octobermedium-termbudgetjitterssettobuild4-5CEEMEA&APACAmidsofteninggrowth,inflationandrevenuecollections,coupledwithPiotrChwiejczak,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategist
2、diminishedinstitutionalcapacityandburdensomeSOEs,themedium-termSaiUlluri,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistbudgetpolicystatementon25OctoberlookslikelytoseefurtherdelaystofiscalTurkEkonomiBankA.S.consolidation.Thisislikelytoreigniteconcernsoverthetimingoffuturesovereignratingsdowngrades,webelieve
3、.ErkinIsik,CFA,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistBNPParibasSingaporeBranchBrazil:Introducingtherealratesandbreakevenmodel6-10MirzaBaig,HeadofFX&IRAsiaStrategistWedeemeditappropriatetoincreaseourtoolboxandextendourmodellingtoAltazDagha,AU/NZIRStrategistrealratesandimpliedBE(breakeven)inflation.We
4、shouldn’texpectahugeDawnKwa,AsiaGraduatemoveinrealratesuntilthereisaconvergenceofbreakeveninflationtoalowerBancoBNPParibasBrasilS.Alevel.GabrielGersztein,HeadFX&IRLatamStrategyLatamFXquarterly:FEERmodelvaluesupdate11-12SamuelCastro,FX&IRLatamStrategistBRListhecurrencywiththemostroom
5、toappreciateintheregion,thelatestGustavoMendonca,FX&IRLatamStrategistresultsconfirm.Ourlong-termestimatespointstoUSDMXNat~17.50andBNPParibasChinaLimitedsuggesttheCOPandARSshoulddepreciateagainsttheUSD.KunShan,ChinaStrategistChile:AFPsrelocationintoequities=CLPratestotheupside13-15Ti
6、anheJi,ChinaStrategistAnincreaseinAFPallocationintolocalfixedincomecontinuestoimpacttheyieldsoftheCLPxCAMcurvetothedownside.Iftherebalancingprocessintoequitiescontinues,itwillbenefitourexisting5yCLPxCAMpayingposition.Mexico:Whattodowithourexistinghedge?16Wereiteratethatthisisnotafun
7、damentallydrivenposition,butapotentialhedgeforourreceivingratestrategyinMexico.Colombia:LocalDebtandPensionFundsMonitor–September201717-19Non-residentshold25.7%ofColombianpublicdebt.Thepensionsystemhasbeensteadilyincreasingtheshareofforeignequities.NEWRECOMMENDATIONSPV01/notionalEnt
8、rylevel/costTargetS
