巴黎银行-全球-外汇策略-外汇驱动力

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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:BearishUSDFXmomentumhasmoderated,drivingtheoverallUSDBNPParibasLondonBranchmomentumscoreupto+45(-/+100scale).USDratesandequitymomentumremainverybullish.AlexanderJekovGBPmomentumhasturnedmorebullish,fromascoreof+29lastweektoGraduateascoreof+41thisweek,asratesmomentumh

2、asturnedmorepositive.JPYmomentumhasdeclinedtoascoreof-32,drivenbyincreasinglyMichaelSneydnegativeJPYratesandequitymomentum.GlobalHeadofFXStrategyNZDmomentumhasmoderatedslightly,butremainsthemostbearishintheG10spacewithascoreof-70.Chart1:USDFXmomentumturnslessbearishChart2:GBPmomentumdrivenbyrates

3、momentumChart3:JPYmomentummorenegativeChart4:NZDmomentumstillverybearishAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasInCharts1and2,eachcomponentscorevariesbetween+/-33.3.InCharts3and4,theoverallscoreisasumofthethreecomponentsandvariesbetween+/-100.BNPParibasFXmomentum(sca

4、leof−100to100)100BullishmomentumBNPParibasFXMomentum20-Feb-201813-Feb-2018454150362920-2-20-50-27-32-70-100BearishmomentumUSDGBPNOKCADEURCHFAUDSEKJPYNZDSource:BNPParibasPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthereport&MARDisclosureswww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comBNPParibasFXmomentumportfoliore

5、turns*Source:Macrobond,BNPParibas*Portfolioofequally-weightedbasketsofeachG10currencywithpositionsizesdeterminedbythemomentumscoresand10%voltarget.Indexedto1Jan2010.Three-yearplotofG10currencymomentumscoresUSDoverallmomentumGBPoverallmomentumEURoverallmomentumJPYoverallmomentumAUDoverallmomentumCAD

6、overallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibas20February20182FXQuantInsightwww.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.comNZDoverallmomentumCHFoverallmomentumNOKoverallmomentumSEKoverallmomentumAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasAllchartsources:Macrobond,BNPParibasBriefin

7、troductiontoBNPParibasFXMomentumBNPParibasFXMomentummeasuresthestrengthofacurrency’sbullishorbearishtrend,providingascoreforeachcurrencybetween+100and-100.Thelargerthescoreforacurrency,thestrongeritstrendap