巴黎银行-新兴市场策略-em strategy desknote south africa,turkey,russia,refocusing on inflation-20170714-bnpparibas

《巴黎银行-新兴市场策略-em strategy desknote south africa,turkey,russia,refocusing on inflation-20170714-bnpparibas》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、EMStrategyDesknoteSouthAfrica,Turkey,Russia:RefocusingoninflationThisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:USFedChairJanetYellen’stestimonybrokethetwo-week-longdrawdowninUSTsandBunds,andtheUSCPIinflationprintreinforcedthisbreak.ThereisstillariskofaPiotrChwiejczakfurthersell-off,butthemo

2、mentumhasbeenlost.BNPParibasLondonBranchFX&IRCEEMEAStrategistWethereforerefocusonthepathoflocalinflation.Inthispiece,wecompareexpectedinflationpathswithwhatiscurrentlypricedin,inordertoassessfuturerealrates.H.ErkinIşık,CFAWiththecurrenttrendsincommoditymarkets,lastyear’shigh

3、printsmaynotbeTurkEkonomiBankA.S.repeatedinQ42017causingafurtherincreaseofrealrates.DependingoninflationFX&IRCEEMEAStrategistlevelsinagivencountry,thismaytriggerpolicyactions.SaiUlluriTrades:TakeprofitonRUBxccypayers.Receive10kDV011y2yTRYsteepenerat-44bptargeting0bp(-13bpcar

4、ryper3m).InSouthAfrica,receive10k2y2yFWDBNPParibasLondonBranch(+36bpannualcarry)at7.38%,targeting6.80%,risking7.60%.CEEMEAGraduateRatessell-offmomentumislostfornowThedrawdowninUSTsandBundsthatwewroteaboutlastweek(CEEMEA:PainThreshold)hasbeenbrokenbydovishcommentsfromChairofth

5、eUSFederalReserve,JanetYellen.Thebearishmomentumisnowover,andalthoughasell-offinratescouldrestart,itwillbedifficulttoregenerateenoughmomentumtotriggeracascadeoflossesfromreceivedpositions.Inourearlierpiece(CEEMEA:Stresstestamidlowinflation),weexplainedthatinorderforhawkishsta

6、tementsbycentralbankstobecredible,theymustbebackedbyinflation.Meanwhile,bothspotinflationprintsandinflationexpectationsremainwellbelowFedandECBtargets.Inflationisdefinedasaprocessofexponentialpriceincreasesi.e.annually,pricesareincreasingbysome%.However,inpractice,sincetaperi

7、ngintheUS,10yinflationbreakevenshavebeendriftingtolowerandlowerlevels.Disinflationarymomentumtopickup–positionfordivergenceincentralbankreactionForthelasttwoweeksweTwoweeksago,inourpieceVictimsofriskparitystrategy(pages12-14),wepresentedatablehavefocusedontheofpastinflationtr

8、ends.Thisweek,weamendandexpandouranalysis.Ourviewisthatasmacroeconom