巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-土耳其备忘录-20170927-bnp paribas-turkey desknote

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1、EMSTRATEGY

2、TURKEYDESKNOTETurkeyDesknote27September2017Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:OveralltoneoftheMediumTermProgrammeisexpansionary,withhigherTurkEkonomiBankA.S.growthandinflationforecasts.Despiteseveralfiscalmeasures,thegeneralgovernmentbudgetdeficitremainselevated

3、.H.ErkinIşık,CFACEEMEAFX&IRStrategyWetriedtoforecasttheTreasury’sfinancingprogramfornextyear,using+902166352987fiscaltargetsinMTPandtheTreasury’sredemptionprojections.Wethinktheissuancepressureonlocalbondsandeurobondswillcontinue.Mediumtermprogrammeremainsexpansionary

4、IntheMediumtermprogram(MTP),thegrowthforecastforthisandthenextthreeyearswererevisedhigherto5.5%,from4.4%for2017and5.0%.Whilethisisinlinewithourforecastfor2017,wethinkthegovernmentwillneedtotakemajorstimulusmeasurestoattainthetargetsincomingyears.Theinflationforecastfor

5、thisyearis9.5%,inlinewithourcallat9.8%,andisexpectedtodeclineto7%nextyearand6%in2019.InthelastInflationReportreleasedinAugust,theCBRTwasprojecting8.7%y/yinflationthisyear,decliningto6.4%y/yin2018and5%in2019.Wethinktheinflationwillbehigherat8.8%and8.5%in2018and2019.Cent

6、ralgovernmentbudgetdeficittoGDPisexpectedtoincreaseto2.0%ofGDPthisyear,from1.1%lastyearandremainmostlyunchangedat1.9%ofGDPintheupcomingtwoyears.Inthelast12monthstoAugust,thisratioisat2.1%,sobudgethastoimproveintheremainderoftheyeartoattainthis,whichwethinkistoooptimist

7、ic.Wecontinuetoexpecta2.5%deficit.Thedeteriorationinthegeneralpublicsector,whichincludesmunicipalitiesandsocialsecurityinstitutions,ismorevisible.Generalpublicsectorisexpectedtopostadeficitof2.4%ofGDPthisyear,upfrom1.0%lastyear.Publicsectordeficitisexpectedtodeclinegra

8、duallyto2.1%ofGDPin2018and1.9%in2019.Therehavebeenseveraltaxhikestoattainthesefiscaltargets.Corporatetaxonfinancialsectorwashikedby2ppto22%,incometaxonthirdbracket(forthoseearning30K-110K)inhikedby3ppto30%andannualtaxpaidonautomobileshikedby40%.Thepositiveimpactonbudge

9、tofthesefiscalmeasureswillbe0.8%ofGDP,avoidingafurtherwideninginthebudgetdeficit.TheimpactonCPIwillbelimited,sotheinc