资源描述：
《巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-土耳其：通货膨胀报告支撑降息-2019073.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FOCUS
2、CEEMEAPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreport31July2019EMECONOMICS
3、EMSTRATEGYTurkey–InflationreportsupportsratecutsWereviseour2019inflationforecastfrom16%to13.5%:KEYMESSAGESThecentralbank’sMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)cutTheTurkishcentralbanklow
4、ereditsyear-end2019CPIthe1-weeklendingrateby425bpto19.75%lastweekandinflationforecastto13.9%from14.6%,byrevisingimport,soundeddovish,referringtoalowerinflationtrendinthefoodandenergypriceforecastsdownwards.comingmonths.Inournotelastweek(Turkey–CBRTstartsThegoverno
5、rstressedadjustedinflationtrendsandrealeasingwith425bppolicyratecut,25July)wementionedthatinterestratesinfluencedthebank’smonetarypolicystance.riskstoour16%year-endCPIinflationforecastweretothedownside.Weexpectyear-endCPIinflationat13.5%andexpectfurtherratecuts,br
6、ingingpolicyratesto16%bytheendofWenowexpectonlyalimitedcontributiontoinflationfromtheyear.administeredpriceadjustmentsthankstothecentralbank’sprofittransferstotheTreasury.Inlightofthehighleveloffoodinflation,wethinkafurtherdownwardcorrectioninfoodpricesishighlylik
7、ely.Moreover,weexpectlessvolatilityinCPIinflationforecastforend-2019fallsto13.9%.Thecurrencythankstoamorepositiveglobalbackdrop.newgovernoroftheCentralBankofTurkey(CBRT),MuratWethinkthat13.5%CPIinflationattheendofyearisUysal,introducedthethirdinflationreportofthis
8、year,achievable.However,weexpectCPIinflationtoremainrevisingtheyear-endCPIforecastfrom14.6%to13.9%(thearoundthislevelinH12020,asafavourablebaseeffectmid-pointofarangebetween11.5%and16.3%).Theend-disappearsthen.Ourexpectationfor2020CPIinflationis2019inflationrevisi
9、onreliedonlowerimportprices,a11%.downwardrevisioninfoodpriceinflationfrom16%to15%andaverageBrentoilpricesfromUSD67.2/bbltoUSD65/bbl(Table1).TheCBRThaskept2020and2021inflationforecastsunchangedat8.2%and5.4%,respectively.AccordingtotheCBRT’slatestexpectationssurvey,
10、themarketexpects15%inflationattheendof2019and13.9%inthe12-month.MARKETVIEWWepreferlongTRYrelativevaluestrategiesandarealsopaidin5YXCCY,takingadvantageof
