巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-巴西：货币政策决策——降息、降息、降息-2019073.pdf

《巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-巴西：货币政策决策——降息、降息、降息-2019073.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

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2、EMPleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport31July2019MARKETECONOMICS

3、EMECONOMICSBrazil:Monetarypolicydecision–cut,cut,cutKEYMESSAGESthecentralbankaffirmedthatuncertaintiesaroundthereformsagenda“stillprevail”.Inotherwords,theeasing

4、Brazil’scentralbank(BCB)onWednesdaycuttheSelicratecyclewillcontinuetofollowtheevolutionofthereforms’to6.0%,openingtheroomfor5.0%SelicratealreadyinagendainCongress.October.DespiteourpreviousthinkingthatthecombinationofWereadtheaccompanyingpolicystatementasdovish,the

5、below-targetinflationprojectionforend-2020andthesuggesting50bpasthecruisepace.disappointinggrowth,couldjustifyacutbackinJune,thesizeoftoday’scutsurprisedus.ConsideringtheAccordingtothestatement,theBCBcouldreassessthebalanceofrisks,weexpectedtheBCBtoprefertostayonsc

6、enarioincaseofnegativedevelopmentsontheeconomictheconservativesidebycuttinglessandatasmallerpace,front.ratherthanruntheriskofhavingtohikeratessoon.WiththeBCBhavingrevealeditsdovishpreference,wethinkitwillcontinueitseasingcycleata50bppace.OurTheBraziliancentralbank(

7、BCB)onWednesdaycutthescenarionowprojects50bpcutsinSeptemberandOctober,Selicrateby50bpto6.0%,againstourcallof6.25%.InwiththeSelicratefinishing2019at5.00%.For2020,wethepost-meetingstatement,theBCBmaintainedaexpectthecentralbanktostartahikingcycleinQ42020,dovishtone,k

8、eepingthedooropenfor50bpcutsinwithriskofhavingtohikeearlyinresponsetoinflationSeptemberandOctober.dynamics.Despitetheaggressivemove,theBCBhasupgradeditsTheupcomingmeetingminutes(tobereleasedon6August)viewoneconomicactivityto“possibilityofrecovery”fromwillgivetheBCB

9、theopportunitytoclarifyitsviewon“interruptionintherecovery”inJune.Accordingtothemonetarypolicygoingforward.statement,themildinflationscenarioshouldallowtheBCBtoaddmorestimuli..Onglobalrisks,thecommitteenowseestheglobaloutlookas“benign”,consideringthechangeinthepros

10、pectsformonetarypolicyinadvancedeconomies.Atthesametime,thecommitteecontinuestosee“risksassociatedFig.1:Selic(%,a.r.)withaslowdowninglobalgrowth”