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1、FOCUS
2、CEEMEAPleaserefertoimportantinformationand09August2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportEMECONOMICS
3、EMSTRATEGYEgypt–looming300bpcutbyend-2019Easingsupply-sidepressures:ThegovernmentKEYMESSAGESrecentlyboostedthestockoffooditemsatlocalstores,according
4、topressreports.TheresultswereEgypt'sinflationsurprisedtothedownsideforaevidentinfoodpriceinflation,whichfellto9.0%y/yinsecondconsecutivemonth,slippingto8.7%y/yinJulyfrom10.4%inJune(seeFig.2).Julyfrom9.4%inJune–likelyestablishingthestartofadisinflationaryt
5、rend.Meanwhile,transportinflationpickedupduetofuelsubsidycuts–to8.7%y/yinJulyfrom2.1%inJune,Weexpectimprovedstaplecommoditiessupplies,althoughlowinternationaloilpriceshelpedkeeplowglobaloilpricesandbettermarketsupervisionbyrelatedpricepressuresfromcompoun
6、dingfurther.thegovernmenttoleadtofurtherdisinflationInmonth-on-monthterms,urbaninflationrosebythroughoutmostofQ3andQ4.1.8%,wellbelowmarketexpectations,consideringtheAsaresult,wehaveadjustedourmonetarypolicyearly-Julyfuelpriceincreasesthatrangedbetween16fo
7、recasttoincludea100bpratecuton22August,–30%.whilestillretainingourcallsfortwofurtherratecutsMorebroadly,wethinkthatdemandpressureremainsinSeptemberandNovember—eachworth100bp.softinhistoricaltermsduetotheerosionofhouseholdpurchasingpowersincethe2016currenc
8、yflotation.MARKETVIEWEMlocalratescontinuetobesupportedbythestrongtailwindsoflowercoreratesandeasierfinancialconditionsindevelopedeconomies.ThisglobalbackdropenablesmostEMcentralbankstoeasetheirmonetarypolicieslikeEgypt,wherefallinginflationkeepsrealratesh
9、ighcomparedtootherhighyieldersevenafteraratecut.ThepressureonEMFXismostlydrivenbyCNYdepreciation,butlocalratesaremoresensitivetocorerates(seeEMStrategy
10、IstheRMBthenewUSdollar?,6August).WealsodonotexpectachangeinportfolioinflowsintoEM(seeEMPortfolioFlows:N
11、osignsofreversal…yet,6August).Fig.1:MonetaryeasingtoresumeinAugustFig.2:Foodpricedecelerationhadanoverridinginfluence18Policyovernightdepositrate(%)45Transport(%y/y)4016forecastpolicyrate3514301225Housing,water&ener
