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2、EUROPEPleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport9August2019MARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、10INTERESTRATES
5、Italy–BoilingoverWealwaysthoughtthatanewelectionin2019wasmorelikelythannot,withSalvinipollingcloseto40%KEYMESSAGESofthevoteonthebasisofcurrentopinionpolls
6、TensionswithinItaly’sgoverningcoalitionfinally(Fig.1.)Indeed,thetensionswithinthegoverningappeartohaveboiledover,takingusanotherstepcoalition,whichhavebeensimmeringforsometime,closertoanelection.appeartohavefinallyboiledover,takingusastepclosertothisbecomingareality.However,anelection
7、Otheroptionsmaybeconsideredfirst,however,isnotguaranteed.Thereareseveralissues:giventhatanelectionwouldlikelyinterferewiththe2020budgetprocess.Parliamentisinrecessandwouldhavetoberecalledforaformaldebateandavoteofnoconfidence,IfanelectionisheldinOctober,thecampaignunlessPremierContere
8、signs.Whilenotastrongwouldlikelybecentredaroundanexpansionaryimpediment,thiscouldtakesometime.budgetwithsomeanti-EUrhetorictomatch–leadingtomarket-unfriendlyheadlines,inourview.AnelectionnowwouldleaveSalviniasbothacandidateforthepositionsofpremierandinteriorAndifaBudgetcannotbepassed,
9、theVAThikeminister.Partofthelatter’sroleistheadministrationwouldbetriggeredfor2020,whichwouldlikelyandoversightofelections.Thiswouldbeconstricteconomicgrowth.unprecedentedandthePresidentmaytaskConteoranewpremierwithforminganewgovernmentintheTRADEIDEAinterim(ie,sothatSalviniisnotinchar
10、geofrunningtheelection).ThisgovernmentwouldbeinchargeBTP2s5scurvesteepener:BuyBTP2.3%Oct21temporarilyduringtheelectioncampaign,whichmay(U9CTD)vssellingBTP0.65%Oct23.Whilethe2yrequirebothtimeandvotesinParliament.shouldremainanchored,the4y/5yareawillfollowthe10ycheapening.MoreoverBTP0.6
11、5%Oct23isveryTiming:Anelectioncanbeheldnoearlierthan45expensiveonthecurve.Entry:41bp.Target:58bp.days(althoughlogistically60daysisprobablyaStop:36.Carry:+0.5bp/month.Current:41bp.minimum)andnolaterthan70daysafteritiscalled.Realistically,therefore,anelectioncouldnothappenbeforeOctober.
12、Thisc
