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1、PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportDEEPDIVEEUROPEECONOMICS
2、G10INTERESTRATES
3、MACROQUANT&DERIVATIVESKEYMESSAGESMeaningfulreductioninItaly’sindebtednesswould,inourview,requiretighterfiscalpolicy–atoddswiththecurrentcoalitiongovernment’sfiscallyexpansiveplans.Assumingcurr
4、entmarketratesandfullimplementationofthe2019budget,followedbyunchangedfiscalpolicy,weseepublicdebtstuckatabout132%ofGDP,leavinglittlescopetorespondtonegativeshocks.Stress-testingItaly’spublicdebtFig.1:Officialgrowthforecasttoppingconsensussurveys4(numberofforecasters)2HistogramFittedno
5、rmaldist.EU,OECD,S&P0BankofItaly,IMF,Moody’sBNPParibas,Fitch86Italiancabinet4211100.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62019realGDPgrowth(%)Sources:Bloombergconsensussurvey,BNPParibasDebt-sustainabilityanalysisbackinvogue:TheItalianTreasuryhasalreadyextractedmuchofthebenefitfromthedeclinei
6、nmarketratessince2013,withthemostrecentriseinBTPyieldssettopushupdebt-servicingcosts.Similarly,themostrecentgrowthslowdownsuggeststhecyclicalbudgetislikelytounderperformthegovernment’sexpectations,makingitmoredifficultforItalytogrowitswayoutofdebt(Figure1).Thismeansthatdiscretionaryfis
7、caltighteningisincreasinglybecomingtheonlyinstrumentavailabletothegovernmenttoreduceitsdeficitratio,bringingtraditionaldebtsustainabilityanalysisbacktothefore.IntroducingDeSA:ToassessrisksassociatedwithItaly’spublicdebtoutlook,wehavedevelopedastylisedframeworkfordebtsustainabilityanaly
8、sis,DeSA,whichwearesharingwithclients.DeSAallowstheusertogeneratescenarioanalysisbasedonvaryingassumptionsongrowth,inflation,markets,thefiscalstanceanditsimpactonactivity.ThesescenarioscanthenbecomparedwiththeofficialItalianforecastsandaprobabilitydistributionimpliedbyBNPParibasbase-ca
9、seprojections.Aprobabilitydistributionisalsogeneratedbasedontheuser’sassumptions,allowingforbetterevaluationofallpossiblealternativepathsforthedebtratio.ToaccessDeSA,pleaseclickhere.TRADEIDEAWethinktheslopeoftheBTPcurveislikelytosteepenasthecreditriskpremiummovesfromthebellytofurther
