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1、ECONOMICS
2、G10INTERESTRATESEurozonegrowth:SoftpatchKEYMESSAGESTheslowdownineurozonegrowthto0.2%q/qinQ3isasoftpatch,ratherthantheharbingerofabroaderslowdown,inourview.Whiledownsideriskshaveincreased,domesticdemandshouldbesufficientlyresilienttomaintaingrowthratesof
3、around0.4%q/qgoingforward.TheECBislikelytostayoncourseandendnetpurchasesinDecember.Ourmarketviewsremainunchanged–weexpecttheBundtoreachayear-end2018targetof0.75%.TRADEIDEAWeassesstheslowdowninQ3eurozoneGDPtobeasoftpatch,notadownturn.Admittedly,growthslowednotabl
4、yinItaly,which,ifsustained,couldhavepotentialpoliticalimplicationsHowever,toalargeextent,thesofteurozonedatareflectsvolatilityincarproduction(particularlyinGermany),whichweexpecttoprovetemporary.Overall,economicfundamentalsintheeurozoneremainsolid.Inourview,growt
5、hshouldreturntoratesofaround0.4%q/q.WethereforeagreewiththeECB’sassessmentofQ3asidiosyncraticandtemporary.ThebartoextendQEbeyondDecemberremainsveryhigh,inourview(seeECB:Weakermomentum,butnotenough,25October2018).Pleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisrepo
6、rtFOCUS
7、EUROZONE30October2018WhatisholdingbacktheBundfromreachingouryear-end2018targetof0.75%istheongoinguncertaintysurroundingItalyaswellastheretracingofstockmarkets.AtthispointwedonotthinkthesoftpatchinQ3growthisafactor,particularlyasinflationnumberscontinuetos
8、howupwardmomentum.Wecontinuetoplaythemedium-termrisingpathineuroyieldsthroughthestructuralEUR30y10ypayingposition(entry:1.505%,current:1.45%,target2%).Fig.1:Eurozoney/yGDPgrowthbreakdownStocks(pp)Domesticdemand(pp)Netexports(pp)GDP(%y/y)43210-1-2-3201320142015201
9、620172018Sources:Eurostat,Macrobond,BNPParibasEstimates(forQ32018breakdown)SpyrosAndreopoulos,SeniorEuropeanEconomist
10、BNPParibasSA,ZweigniederlassungFrankfurt
11、AntonioMontilla,EuropeanEconomist
12、MarcoMeijer,EuropeStrategist
13、BNPParibasLondonbranch
14、FOCUS30/10/20181MI
15、CS
16、G10INTERESTRATESEurozonegrowth:Asoftpatch,notadownturnTheflashGDPestimateconfirmedaslowdowninthepaceofeconomicrecoveryintheeurozoneinQ3.•Belowconsensus(0.4%
