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ID:54372593
大小:2.73 MB
页数:9页
时间:2020-04-30
《巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-欧盟:我们的主要任命-2019070.pdf》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、FOCUS
2、EUROPEPleaserefertoimportantinformationat3July2019theendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、EQUITY&DERIVATIVES
5、G10INTERESTRATESEU–OurtakeonkeyappointmentsKEYMESSAGESWhileweconsiderrecentprogressinfillingtheEU’stopjobstobepositive,wenotepotentialforthepackageofappointments
6、tofailtobeapprovedoverthecomingweeks.OurworkingassumptionisthatChristineLagardedoessecuretheECBPresidency,however.TheappointmentofLagardetoheadtheECBsupportsourviewoneurozonemonetarypolicy,aswebelieveshehastheconsensus-buildingabilityandpoliticalskilltomaintainherpredecessor’
7、sdovishstanceandresumeQE.ThenewCommissionfacesanumberofearlychallenges,includingItaly’sbudget,UStraderelationsandBrexit.MARKETVIEWSThenominationofLagardetotheECBisadovishsign,inourview,whichunderscoresournewlowerBundyieldforecast,tighterBTP–Bundspread,andlimitedEURupside.ForF
8、X,combinedwithPresidentTrump’snominationsfortheUSFed,theappointmentcementsthedovishappetiteofcentralbanksandisthereforebullishfortheJPY.Thisisalsolikelytoprolongtheequitymarketcycleforawhileandissupportiveofourlate-cycletrades.Lower-for-longerbondyieldsarelikelytobesupportive
9、ofbond-likeequitiesattheexpenseofsomeofthemorecyclicalnames.AppointmentPoliticalCountryofRolePersonTermofofficeprocesssupportnationalityEuropeanCouncil:Nominee:UrsulavonderLeyenCentre-rightGermanyPresidentoftheQMV*5yearsEuropeanCommissionEuropeanParliament:(renewable)Outgoing
10、:Jean-ClaudeJunckerCentre-rightLuxembourgsimplemajorityEuropeanCouncil:New:CharlesMichelLiberalsBelgiumPresidentoftheQMV2.5yearsEuropeanCouncilEuropeanParliament:(renewableonce)Outgoing:DonaldTuskCentre-rightPolandnoapprovalrequiredEuropeanCouncil:New:DavidSassoliCentre-leftI
11、talyPresidentofthenoapprovalrequired2.5yearsEuropeanParliamentEuropeanParliament:(renewable)Outgoing:AntonioTajaniCentre-rightItalysimplemajorityEuropeanCouncil:Nominee:ChristineLagardeLiberalsFrancePresidentoftheQMV8yearsEuropeanCentralBankEuropeanParliament:(non-renewable)O
12、utgoing:MarioDraghi–ItalynoapprovalrequiredEuropeanCouncil:HighRepre
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