巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-欧盟：我们的主要任命-2019070.pdf

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1、FOCUS

2、EUROPEPleaserefertoimportantinformationat3July2019theendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS

3、G10FX

4、EQUITY&DERIVATIVES

5、G10INTERESTRATESEU–OurtakeonkeyappointmentsKEYMESSAGESWhileweconsiderrecentprogressinfillingtheEU’stopjobstobepositive,wenotepotentialforthepackageofappointments

6、tofailtobeapprovedoverthecomingweeks.OurworkingassumptionisthatChristineLagardedoessecuretheECBPresidency,however.TheappointmentofLagardetoheadtheECBsupportsourviewoneurozonemonetarypolicy,aswebelieveshehastheconsensus-buildingabilityandpoliticalskilltomaintainherpredecessor’

7、sdovishstanceandresumeQE.ThenewCommissionfacesanumberofearlychallenges,includingItaly’sbudget,UStraderelationsandBrexit.MARKETVIEWSThenominationofLagardetotheECBisadovishsign,inourview,whichunderscoresournewlowerBundyieldforecast,tighterBTP–Bundspread,andlimitedEURupside.ForF

8、X,combinedwithPresidentTrump’snominationsfortheUSFed,theappointmentcementsthedovishappetiteofcentralbanksandisthereforebullishfortheJPY.Thisisalsolikelytoprolongtheequitymarketcycleforawhileandissupportiveofourlate-cycletrades.Lower-for-longerbondyieldsarelikelytobesupportive

9、ofbond-likeequitiesattheexpenseofsomeofthemorecyclicalnames.AppointmentPoliticalCountryofRolePersonTermofofficeprocesssupportnationalityEuropeanCouncil:Nominee:UrsulavonderLeyenCentre-rightGermanyPresidentoftheQMV*5yearsEuropeanCommissionEuropeanParliament:(renewable)Outgoing

10、:Jean-ClaudeJunckerCentre-rightLuxembourgsimplemajorityEuropeanCouncil:New:CharlesMichelLiberalsBelgiumPresidentoftheQMV2.5yearsEuropeanCouncilEuropeanParliament:(renewableonce)Outgoing:DonaldTuskCentre-rightPolandnoapprovalrequiredEuropeanCouncil:New:DavidSassoliCentre-leftI

11、talyPresidentofthenoapprovalrequired2.5yearsEuropeanParliamentEuropeanParliament:(renewable)Outgoing:AntonioTajaniCentre-rightItalysimplemajorityEuropeanCouncil:Nominee:ChristineLagardeLiberalsFrancePresidentoftheQMV8yearsEuropeanCentralBankEuropeanParliament:(non-renewable)O

12、utgoing:MarioDraghi–ItalynoapprovalrequiredEuropeanCouncil:HighRepre