巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-资产管理公司的狂欢结束了？-2019070.pdf

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2、EMEAPleaserefertoimportantinformationand9July2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportEQUITY&DERIVATIVESPartytimeoverforassetmanagers?Passiveaggression:SincelastAugust,wehadKEYMESSAGESexpectedtheassetmanagementsectortoAssetmanagementcompanieshavehadastrongunderp

3、erform(seePassiveaggression,30Augustrallysincethestartoftheyear,followingtheequity2018).Sincepublication,ourselectionofassetmarketrebound.managers’stockshasunderperformedglobalfinancialsbyc.1%.Inthenear-term,webelieveequitymarketsareAssetmanagersunderperformedsigni

4、ficantlyduringalreadypricingalotofthegoodnewswhileriskstheselloffoflastyearandhaveralliedbackthisyear.remaintothedownside.WebelieveshortingassetOurBNPParibasGlobalAssetManagerBasketismanagers'stockscouldbeagoodwaytopositionnowtradingclosetothelevelswhereweinitiated

5、theforthesame.tradeinAugust2018.WhilepricesarebacktoAssetmanagerstendtobehighlycorrelatedtothepreviouslevels,ROEisstillsignificantlydownfromeconomiccycle–underperformingduringthelate-thecorrespondingperiodoflastyearandearningscycleasinvestorstakeriskoffthetable,res

6、ultinginmomentumremainsnegative.outflowsfromfunds.WebelievetherallyamongstassetmanagerssincethestartoftheyeardoesnotfullyreflectthepoorRegulatorypressureonmarginsofassetearningstrendofthesector.We,therefore,maintainmanagementcompaniesarelikelytostay.ourbearishviewo

7、nthisthematicbasket(BNPPGAM1PopularityofETFshascontinuedtogrowdespiteIndexforreferenceonBloomberg).liquidityconcernsduringtimesofmarketstress.Racetothebottom:TheassetmanagementindustryhascontinuedtocompeteonpriceoverthelastyearwiththelaunchofzerofeeETFs.Marginpress

8、ureandTRADEIDEAcompetitionhascontinuedtoputpressureonthemargintrend.Inaddition,poorperformancefromInvestorswhoagreewithourviewthatglobalactivemanagersrelativetobenchmarks,havenotassetmanagersarelikelytocontinuetoseeprofithelpedthemovefromactivetopassive.headwinds,m

9、ayconsidershortingtheBNPParibasGlobalAssetManagerBasketagainstFig.1:MorecyclicalfeatureofassetmanagersbeinglongMSCIWorldFinancialsindex.Risk:Ther