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1、FOCUS
2、EMERGINGMARKETSPleaserefertoimportantinformationand9July2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreport™EMECONOMICS
3、EMSTRATEGYEmergingMarkets:AssessingtheimpactofoilpricesKEYMESSAGESToassesscountriesmostexposedtovolatilityinoilprices,weWeanalysedtheimpactofoilpricevolatilityonEMstudiedoilre
4、nts(thedifferencebetweenthevalueofproductioneconomiesbasedoneachcountry’sexposuretooil.andcostsofproduction)versustheweightofenergycommoditiesintotalexports(Fig.1);andnetoiltrade–theThefiscalimpactissizablefortheGCCandColombia,differencebetweenexportsandimportsofcrudeoilwhenwhichextractb
5、igrentsfromcrude.Conversely,thosecomparedtothesizeofthecurrentaccountbalance(Fig.2).thatsubsidisefuelpricesfacerisingbillswhenoilrises.WeflagthreeEMsubgroupsmoreexposedtooilpriceNetoilimporterswithbigcurrentaccountdeficitssuchfluctuations:asTurkey,SouthAfricaandIndiacouldbenefitifpricesi
6、.Majoroilproducers:Theyaremostexposedtooilpriceremainlow,butcrude-reliantGCCwouldsuffer.sways.SaudiArabia,Oman,andColombialookWenotethattheweightoffuelinCPIbasketsvarybyparticularlyfragiletoadropinoilprices,withhighfiscalcountryandforsomelikeIndia,Poland,Turkeyandbreak-evens.Braziltheyar
7、eparticularlymeaningful.ii.Majornetimporterswithbigcurrentaccountshortfalls:TheseincludecountrieswhoseexternalvulnerabilitiesareAlthoughweexpectoilpricestoriselaterintheyear,influencedbyfluctuationinoilprices.India,thePhilippines,wedonotexpecttheleveltoworrymostnetimporters.Indonesia,and
8、SouthAfricastandoutintermsofexposure.iii.Netimporterswithcurrentaccountsurpluses:TheMARKETVIEWSimportanceofoilislessmeaningfulforcountriessuchasWemaintaincorebullishpositionsinEMs,ThailandandSouthKorea,butitcouldstilladdtotheirwoesconsideringtheimportanceofdifferentiationwithinthedurings
9、harppriceincreases.assetclass–includingcommodityexposure.OurshortWealsonotethatcountriessuchasArgentinaandRomaniathatRussia5YCDSpositionwillbeakeybeneficiaryofthearenotcurrentlybigoilimporters,butrunlargecurrentaccountupwardtrendinhigheroil.Asanetimporter,Indiaisgaps,coul
