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1、Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:PageBNPParibasLondonBranchSTRONGGROWTHUNDERPINSPOSITIVEEMSENTIMENT3-5WikeGroenenberg,HeadofEmergingMarketsResearch,CEEMEA&APACWehavearguedbeforethatthestrongexportpictureandthesynchronisednatureofglobalgrowth(combinedwithstill-lowinflation)arek
2、eyargumentsforPiotrChwiejczak,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistbeinginvestedinemergingmarketsgoinginto2018.WithstronggainsalreadySaiUlluri,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistseenthisyear,itisbecominghardertoargueforfurtherEMassetperformance.TurkEkonomiBankA.S.Thatsaid,westillexpectfurthergainsinthen
3、extfewmonths.ErkinIsik,CFA,FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistTHEMESOFTHEWEEKBNPParibasSingaporeBranchMirzaBaig,HeadofFX&IRAsiaStrategistIndianbudget:Bondinvestors–bepatient6-9TheFY18targetofa3.2%ofGDPbudgetdeficitislikelytobemissedandSuSianLim,Economist,IndiaandIndonesiarolledouttoFY19,
4、inourview.WesetoutourmacroexpectationsandoutlookDawnKwa,AsiaGraduateforIndianratesandFX.BancoBNPParibasBrasilS.AAsiaFX:Howtoreadanactivityspike10-14GabrielGersztein,HeadFX&IRLatamStrategyActivityspikesinNDFsandoptionscansignalamarketbreak-out(newtrend)orovershoot(trendexhau
5、stion).DecipheringwhatthismeansthoughismoreofSamuelCastro,FX&IRLatamStrategistanartthanascience.Atpresent,AsiancurrenciesarerisingonstrongGustavoMendonca,FX&IRLatamStrategistvolumes.Wedonotobserveextremevolumesthatwouldtypicallycharacterizeatrendreversal.AsiaFX:Acall/putrat
6、ioforAsiancurrencies15-17Weconstructasimplecall/putratio,basedonthepremiapaidforUSDcallsvsUSDputs.USDputsarebecomingincreasinglypopular,whichisconsistentwiththemessagefromrisk-reversalskews.ThemarketwantstobuyUSDdownside,andthespotmarketisvalidatingtheoptionsflow,creatingar
7、einforcingeffectonthetrend.Argentina:USDdemandcontinues18-19USDpurchasesbythenon-financialprivatesectorremainhighinArgentina.Combinedwiththeprospectofahighfinancingneedtocoverthefiscaldeficitandwideningcurrentaccountdeficit,andArgentina’sheavyrelianceonportfolioflows,weseet
8、hecountryasvulnerabletoanyreversalinrisksentiment.Brazil’sannualborrowingplan:Abet
