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2、UKPleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreport01August2019MARKETECONOMICS
3、G10INTERESTRATESBankofEngland–“It’scomplicated”Ontrack.TheBoE’sAugustInflationReportsupportsKEYMESSAGESourviewthatthereremainsscopeforratehikesintheAsweanticipated,theBankofEngla
4、nd’sMPCsecondhalfof2020,providedthatano-dealBrexitisstruckacautioustoneatAugust’smeeting,butavoided.However,inano-dealscenario,wecontinuerefrainedfromshiftingtoaneasingbias.tothinkthatpolicyeasingislikelyandseescopeforratecutsandQE.Butpre-emptivecutsorashifttoanWhile
5、itacknowledgeddownsiderisksduetoaeasingbiasintheneartermlooksveryunlikely,weakerglobalbackdropandincreasedchanceofadespitetheheightenedriskofnodeal.no-dealBrexit,itmaintaineditsstate-contingenttighteningbias,andtherewasnoconsensustoAtaleoftwoforecasts.Itwasacomplicat
6、edsignalaneasingbiasunderano-dealscenario.messagetodeliver.TheGDPforecastsfor2019and2020weredrivendownbytheweakerglobalThepathforpolicywillultimatelybedecidedbyenvironmentandmore“entrenched”uncertaintyaboutpoliticaldevelopmentsinthecomingmonths,onBrexit.ButwiththeMPC
7、stillassuminga“smooth”whichthereislittleclarityatpresent.But,intheBrexit(asitisthegovernment’sofficialpolicytoreacheventofanorderlyoutcome,weseesignificantadeal)andfinancialmarketsnowanticipatingratescopeforpolicydivergencebetweentheBoEandcuts,itprojectedanevenlarger
8、overshootofthe2%theUSFederalReserve/ECB.inflationtargetthanbefore,andagrowingamountof“excessdemand”intheeconomy(seeFigure1.)MarketViewTotryandreconcilethis,theMPCproducedaWeseelittlereasonforthemarkettoextendrate-cut“sensitivityanalysis”whichshowedhowahigherpathexpec
9、tationsaftertheAugustBoEmeeting(themarketforinterestratesandtheexchangerate,andloweriscurrentlypricinginaround14bpofcutsbytheyear-pathforcreditspreads(allofwhichwouldbelikelyinend).Atthemargin,thefactthereisnoconsensusonadealscenario),wouldaffectitsprojections.rateac
10、tionundernodealcouldbeinterpretedasIfadealisstruck,ratesshouldrise.Onthefaceofslightlyhawkish.Wecontinuetofavourpaying10y20yit,theo
