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2、UK01November2018PleaserefertoimportantinformationMARdisclosureECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、G10INTERESTRATESBankofEnglandwaitsforBrexitgreenlightKEYMESSAGESWereitnotforBrexituncertainty,theBankofEnglandwouldprobablyhavelaidthegroundworktodayforitsnextratehike.TheMonetaryPolicyCommitteekeptitsforwardguidanc
5、eunchangedandwasunanimousinitson-holddecision;butthedetailslookedhawkish.TheMPCforecastsinflationtoremainabove2%atthetwo-yearhorizon,evenbeforenextyear’sbudgetstimulusisaccountedfor.OncetheMPCgetstheBrexit‘greenlight’,weexpecttwohikesin2019,inMayandNovember–sooner,andbymore,thanmarketsexpect.Hawkis
6、hunderlyingview:TheMPCleftitsgrowthforecastsmoreorlessunchanged,butitthinksdemandwilloutstripsupplyfromthesecondhalfof2019,abitearlierthanitpreviouslyexpected.Italsofocusedontherecentstrongpickupinwagegrowth.Giventhatmonetarypolicyactswithalag,weexpecttheMPCwillwanttotightenpolicysoonerratherthanla
7、ter.Theunderlyingmessagewashawkish,therefore,inourview.Outlookforabove-targetinflation:TheMPCnowexpectsinflationtoremainabovethetargetuntilthethirdyearoftheforecast.Thisisoutsidethe“conventionalhorizon”of18–24monthswithinwhichtheMPCtypicallyaimstogetinflationundercontrol.(seeFigure1).MARKETVIEWSWec
8、ontinuetofavourselling10yinthe5s10s15sgiltflyand,additionally,payingtheMayMPC,whichonlypricesina28%probabilityofa25bphike.PayMayMPCat0.79%.Target:0.95%.Stop:0.70%.Roll:−0.5bp/monthBrexituncertaintyislikelytopreventGBPfromgainingtoomuchinthenearterm,evenifgiltyieldsadjusthigher.However,wethinkGBPUSD
9、callspreads,whichknockoutonthedownside,presentattractiverisk-rewardtopositionforaneventualBrexitdealandsubsequentfallinGBPUSDimpliedvolatility(seeBrexit–Immunizingpositionsagainstvolrepricing,dated24October).SincetheMPC’sforecastswerefinalised,themarketinterestrateexpectationsonwhichtheyarebasedha
10、vefallen.Thiswouldpushuponinflation,allelsebeingequal.Moreover,theforecastsdonotincorporatethefiscalexpansionfor2019unveiledinthisweek’sbudget,whichisequivalentto0.3%ofGDP(seeFigure2).Stillseetwohikesin2019
