资源描述：
《巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-英国脱欧：鲍里斯困境-20190809.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DEEPDIVE
2、UKPleaserefertoimportantinformationand9August2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、G10INTERESTRATESBrexit–Boris’sdilemmaOnacollisioncourse:TheinstallationofamoreKEYMESSAGESeuroscepticcabinetandtheappointmentofDominicBor
5、isJohnsonfacesthreefundamentalconstraints:Cummings(architectoftheVoteLeavecampaign)astheEU,theelectorateandParliament.Inthisnote,defactochiefofstaffhaveincreasedtheperceptionwediscussthetrade-offshefacesandtheroutesthattheUKisatloggerheadswiththeEUwh
6、ichcouldhecouldtake.endina‘no-deal’Brexit.Asaresult,wenowraiseourprobabilityofano-dealWeareraisingour‘no-deal’scenarioprobabilityoutcomefrom40%(on21May)to50%.Thatsaid,wefrom40%to50%inlightofrecentdevelopments.wouldhighlighttwopoints:Thatsaid,a‘no-dea
7、l’outcomeisnotinevitable.A(i)WithParliamentinrecess,therhetoricisverymuchconfrontationwithParliamentlookslikely,andweinonedirection,withnoeffectivecounter-balanceinexploresomeofthewaysinwhichParliamentcouldtheformofMPsactivelytryingtopreventadisorder
8、lypreventsuchanoutcome.outcome.WeseeanelectioninQ4ashighlylikely,although(ii)IncreasingtheperceptionthattheGovernmentisitscontext,precisetimingandoutcomeremainseriousaboutano-dealBrexitisnodoubtpartofaunclear.Inthemeantime,uncertaintyislikelytotactic
9、toscorepointsonthedomesticpoliticalfrontremainelevated,whichwillcontinuetoactasa(ietoincreaseBorisJohnson’sBrexitcredibilityinthedragontheUKeconomy.eyesofprospectiveBrexitpartysupporters)andtowinconcessionsfromtheEU.MARKETVIEWSFX:Theprobabilityofnode
10、alhasincreased,maintainingadampeningeffectontheGBP.However,shortGBPpositionshaveextendedsignificantly,andEURGBPandGBPUSDareclosetowhatourBNPParibasCLEERTMmodelsuggestsshouldbefairvalueinano-dealscenario.Asaresult,wearereluctanttoentershortGBPposition
11、s.Wefindrisk-rewardmoreattractivetoconsiderenteringstructurallongGBPpositionsaswegetclosertoSeptember.Rates:Werecommendselling10YIrishversusbuying10YFranceasano-dealhedge.Onapositiveoutcome,however,wefavourcost-effectivewaysoftakingashortpositioninth
