巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-巴西：大选追踪

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1、BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERNOVEMBER2017EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconThisisaninteractivemenu.CONTENTSClinkontheboxesbelowtonavigatethroughthefile01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOSHISTORICALSERIES•PRESIDENT:1STROUND•CALENDAR•LULA•JOÃODORIA•PRESIDENT:•SENAT

2、ECHANGES•TVANDRADIOTIME•GERALDOALCKMIN•MARINASILVAAPPROVALRATES•POLLSMETHODOLOGY•POLITICALREFORM•JAIRBOLSONARO•LUCIANOHUCK•CONGRESS/SENATE•VOTERSPROFILE•JAQUESWAGNER•CIROGOMESCOMPOSITIONToreturntothismenu,clickonthe•FERNANDOHADDAD•HENRIQUEMEIRELLES•ELECTIONSCHANGESmenuico

3、n;tonavigatethroughslides,clickonthearrows•TEAMNovember13,2017

4、2CONTENTS01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOSHISTORICALSERIES•PRESIDENT:1STROUND•CALENDAR•LULA•JOÃODORIA•PRESIDENT:•SENATECOMPOSITION•TVANDRADIOTIME•GERALDOALCKMIN•MARINASILVAAPPROVALRATES•POLLSMETHODOLOGY•POLITICALRE

5、FORM•JAIRBOLSONARO•LUCIANOHUCK•CONGRESS/SENATE•VOTERSPROFILE•JAQUESWAGNER•CIROGOMESCOMPOSITION•FERNANDOHADDAD•HENRIQUEMEIRELLES•ELECTIONSCHANGES•TEAMNovember13,2017

6、301.POLLSNovember13,2017

7、4SPONTANEOUSVOTINGINTENTIONVOTINGPROSPECTSRiseofoutliersinsurveysiscommonintheear

8、lystagesofthecampaignBolsonaro(PEN)hasbeenahighlightforhisincreaseinspontaneousvotingintentions21Lula(PT)181512Bolsonaro(PEN)963JoãoDoria(PSDB)MarinaSilva(REDE)Alckmin(PSDB)0Oct-15Feb-16Jun-16Oct-16Feb-17Jun-17CNT/MDASource:CNT/MDA(Sep/17),BNPParibasNovember13,2017

9、5POTE

10、NTIALELECTORATEVOTINGPROSPECTSLula(PT)showsahighfloor(“assured”votes)butalsoalowceiling(highrejection)ofvoteintentionsLesser-knowncandidateshavepotentialroomtoattractpotentialvotersCorruptionscandalscouldweighondisapprovalratingsoftraditionspoliticians36425150544962117

11、1646382231142430151613910976586LulaMarinaSilvaGeraldoAlckminAécioNevesCiroGomesJairBolsonaroJoãoDoria(PT)(REDE)(PSDB)(PSDB)(PDT)(PEN)(PSDB)WOULDVOTEFORSURECOULDVOTEDON'TKNOWENOUGHWOULDN’TVOTEANYWAYApr/17Source:Ibope,BNPParibasNovember13,2017

12、6REJECTIONLEVELSVOTINGPROSPECT

13、SHighlevelofrejectionamongallcandidatesLula(PT),hasthehighestrejectionlevelamongmainpotentialc